Keeneland/Wood/Santa Anita

                                                                         Keeneland

In Lexington, it might be hard to find someone who thinks the first Friday/Saturday in April isn't as prevalent as the first Saturday in May. April has finally arrived and Keeneland will open it's gates for four weeks of racing tomorrow. If you haven't been to Keeneland before then you will not begin to comprehend the logic behind the prestige that this track carries. Opening Saturday brings patrons the Ashland Stakes (G1) for three-year-old fillies, while the following Saturday is the Bluegrass Stakes (G1) for derby hopefuls. Now only if they would rip up that Polytrack and go back to conventional dirt....

Last weekend we saw a talented horse named Revolutionary take down the Louisiana Derby in order to punch his ticket to the Derby. This Saturday, Normandy Invasion is going to need to pull off the upset over one of the two unbeatens, Verrazano and Vyjack, in the Wood Memorial (G1) to claim one of the 20 starting spots. 

Over on the West Coast, Hear the Ghost is the only one heading into the Santa Anita Derby (G1) without any pressure. Flashback and Goldencents are currently on the edge of the fence with 30 and 29 points respectively and certainly can't afford to throw in a clunker if they want to make the trip to Louisville. These top three will have to hold off the late charging Tiz a Minister who came from way back in the San Felipe (G2) to capture third and is looking to crash the Derby party. 

Wood Memorial (G1)
4/6 6:28 EST

Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/8m

2 Normandy Invasion 5-1

Was off slow in the in the Risen Star (G2) but ran out of track and still managed to finish only 1 1/2 lengths back in fifth. The added distance will allow him to pull off the upset just before the wire and secure a spot in the Derby field. 

8 Verrazano 4-5

Looked superb in his three starts but who has he beaten. Will be the heavy favorite but this lightly-raced colt can be upset here. 

5 Vyjack 4-1

Impressive come from behind victory in the Gotham (G3) was flying down the stretch. Can't overlook as a possible winner. 

4 Elnaawi 12-1

Third in the Gotham last time. One that keeps improving and certainly can't be dismissed. 

Ex/Tri Bx: 2,8,5,4

Santa Anita Derby (G1)
4/6 Santa Anita 7:00 EST

Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/8m

4 Tiz a Minister 

Likes to come from far back and there is pace in here to track. We find out just how good he might be as he has hit the board when put to the test outside state-breds. Will hit the board but I like him to run down the field at the end to upset. 

1 Flashback

If he gets caught up in another speed duel you might as well count him out. If he can sit mid-pack and come from off the pace breaking from post 1 then he has no excuse this time and could be the one to emerge. 

3 Power Broker

With Hear the Ghost suddenly off the Derby trail, he becomes even more interesting. Making first start since his disappointing trip in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. 

Ex/Tri Bx: 4,1,3

*Hear the Ghost off the Derby Trail...

*Revolutionary booked a ticket to the Derby by taking the Louisiana Derby. Code West didn't fire, while Palace Malice couldn't have had a worse trip. 
*Hit the exacta in the Florida Derby as Orb was impressive and Itsmyluckyday was in perfect position but just got beat. Looks like Itsmyluckyday might have problems with the distance.

Louisiana/Florida Derby

The last leg of the "Kentucky Derby Championship Series" takes off this weekend as the points double from 50-20-10-5 to 100-40-20-10. What does this mean? Pretty simple, hit the board or Derby dreams get dashed.

Fair Grounds plays host to one of the two derbies on Saturday, the Louisiana Derby (G2). This is where we finally get to see if the son of War Pass truly is "Revolutionary". He is coming off one of the most impressive come from behind victories this year in the Withers (G3) at the beginning of February and is running outside the state of New York for the first time in his career. Revolutionary will have to step up to the competition if he wants to book a trip to Louisville. With currently only 10 points attached to his name anything other than a 1-2 finish will have this promising colt on the outside looking in. Two others that will take the majority of the money are the 2-3 finishers in the Risen Star (G2), Baffert's Code West and Pletcher's other entry, Palace Malace. Undefeated Departing steps up to graded stakes company out of Al Stall's barn and could be in the mix.

Gulfstream Park showcases the Florida Derby (G1). Itsmyluckyday sure better hope that is the case on Saturday as he is another top three-year-old that must run 1-2 or he might be sitting out this year's Derby. Two-year-old champ Shanghai Bobby looks to redeem himself after being passed in the stretch by Lucky last time out in the Holy Bull (G3). Stretching out in distance certainly does not bode well for Bobby who already has 24 points but needs to hit the board here if he wants to claim a spot in the Derby. Orb, winner of the Fountain of Youth (G2) last month already has the points needed to run in May and is just trying to build some confidence in his last prep before Churchill. Just like I tabbed Lucky as the wildcard in the Holy Bull, I am going to throw Are You Kidding Me into the pool of contenders here as he makes his first start on the dirt. If you like maiden winners jumping straight to graded stakes then you can't dismiss Dale Roman's Pick of the Litter, who is coming off an impressive 7 1/2-length victory at the distance over the track.

Flashy Gray makes her second try around two turns in the Fair Ground Oaks (G2) and faces off against the undefeated Unlimited Budget. In the Gulfstream Oaks (G2) Live Lively, Dreaming of Julia and Emollient will battle it out as they gear up for the Oaks.

Louisiana Derby (G2)
3/30 Fair Grounds 6:44 EST

Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/8m

Revolutionary 3-1

Watch the Withers and you will see why this colt is in my number one spot in the rankings. Will take  his talent to another state and prove that he belongs in the field of 20. If he can emerge from this full 14-horse field,  then not only will it prove he can overcome his traffic issues but also it will also give him a sample size of what the Derby will be like for him here in a month. It certainly would be nice to get him at 3-1 odds at the window.

Code West 9-2

It looked like he was finished in the stretch last time but found another gear and fought back to lose out only by a nose. Look for him to place behind Revolutionary and grab enough points for a spot in the Derby. 

Palace Malace 5-1

Everytime you turn around there is another promising Pletcher colt looming. There are many that like him to pull off the upset Saturday but he had the best trip of the top four in the Risen Star and fell back to third. One that should hit the board but there are two others in here that are just plain better. 

Departing 8-1

Sleeper that could upset if he handles the step up in class. He is undefeated but the big question is who has he beaten.

Florida Derby (G1)
3/30 Gulfstream Park 6:19 EST

Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/8m

Itsmyluckyday 2-1

Posted the top BRIS Speed rating of his class in the last race. Is it Gulfstream or did he just mature that much from 2 to 3? Doesn't really matter as he returns for his third start over the track. In a class above the rest based on his figures. After tabbing him as wildcard in the Holy Bull and not betting him, I definitely won't be taking a stand against him this time. 

Orb 3-1

Another three-year-old that drastically improved from one start to the next. The Fountain of Youth winner likes to come from behind and has already won at the 1 1/8 mile distance. If he can keep Lucky within striking distance has a shot to pull off the upset. 

Shanghai Bobby 5-2

I really like this guy as he has shown that he's got heart but the added distance looks to be an issue. Unless he can come from off the pace there is no way he will be wiring the field here. 

Are You Kidding Me 15-1

Turf horse that is trying the dirt for the first time. Will be coming from off the pace and you just never know how these three-year-olds will take to a new surface. Will either hit the board or be a bust and head back to the turf.

*Last time had Hear the Ghost to upset in the San Felipe which he pulled off. Hit the exacta and trifecta as I had longshot Tiz a Minister hitting the board. Also, had Verrazano pegged to win the Tampa Bay Derby, but who didn't, right?

8 Weeks....

That's right, it's hard to imagine we are only eight weeks away from the most exciting two minutes in sports. Another weekend is approaching and that means more three-year-olds are loading the gates across the country in an attempt to garner the points necessary to have a shot at history.

This Saturday has two points races on the schedule as a field of nine will be competing in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs and out on the West coast a field of eight are expected to load the gates for the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita. The latter is the prep for the Santa Anita Derby just four weeks away. The Fred "Cappy" Capossela Stakes at Aqueduct has some talented youngsters lined up as well. While this is a non-points race at only six furlongs, don't be surprised to see the winner pop up in the Wood Memorial next month to take a shot at getting into the Derby.

Verrazono highlights the Tampa Bay Derby field as he makes his highly anticipated stakes debut. Coming off a 16 1/4-length clinic in a one-mile optional claimer, while posting a 104 BRIS Speed rating will certainly be the sophomore to beat in this derby. Falling Sky, winner of the Sam Davis (G3) last month over this track will need to break well from the outside post. Dynamic Sky was a neck second in the Davis and figures to contend. Honorable Dillon is the other graded winner entered as he exits a victory in the Hutcheson (G2). Purple Egg is the interesting entry as he makes his three-year-old debut after suffering a few setbacks earlier in the year. He has not been seen since winning the Inaugural Stakes back in December and will try his first shot around two turns.

Flashback and Goldencents are the headliners in the San Felipe, being the only two graded winners entered. The lightly-raced son of Ghostzapper, Hear the Ghost figures to make some noise in his first race at a route distance after a fast closing second to Distictiv Passion in the San Pedro Stakes. There is some buzz surrounding Omega Star, who drew the outside post but don't count out the California Breeders' Championship Stakes scorer Tiz A Minister.

Keep an eye on Oaklawn Park and Flashy Gray, who makes her stakes debut in the Honeybee (G3) as she looks to get on the board for the Kentucky Oaks. My pick to win the Oaks before she opened up in the future pool at 15-1. Unfortunately many others saw the same hype surrounding this daughter of Flashy Bull as she closed out the pool this past Sunday as the 6-1 favorite.

Tampa Bay Derby (G2)
3/9 Tampa Bay Downs 5:15 EST

Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/16m

Verrazano 4-5
No reason he shouldn't win his graded stakes bow. Not going to get any value but if he loses there will be an excuse right?

Dynamic Sky 4-1
After an uninspiring fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile has come back as a three-year-old to to win a stakes and get a a neck second in a graded race. Should be in the money but this is Verrazano's race to lose. 

Honorable Dillon 6-1
Likes to come from off the pace and is making his first attempt around two turns. Just fighting to hit the board here. 

Purple Egg 10-1
Looks to stay undefeated in his sophomore debut. Tough spot to enter here after a long layoff. Will be interesting to see how he does. 

EX/TRI BX: 6,5,3,2

San Felipe (G2)
3/9 Santa Anita Park 6:35 EST

Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/16m

Hear the Ghost 6-1

The ghost will be heard from come Saturday. Stepped up to stakes company last out off his maiden win and showed he belongs as he was closing the gap on the winner. If he improves again in his third start look for him to pull off the upset. First start around two turns is always worrisome for these three-year-olds regardless of pedigree until they actually show they can handle the distance. 

Tiz a Minister 12-1

First start on dirt was impressive, posting a 108 late pace and a 98 BRIS Speed rating albeit it was against state-breds at Santa Anita. Likes to come from way back and with the early speed in this race will be picking off the field coming down the stretch. If he doesn't get too far back too early he will be there at the end and might be the one to emerge. 

Flashback 8-5

On many peoples short list to win the Derby. Stepped up to graded company after breaking his maiden to win going away by 6 1/4 lengths in the four-horse field in the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis. Need to see him race against a larger field in graded company before I'm fully on board and he can be upset here. 

Goldencents 2-1

Has won two Grade 3 races back-to-back but his late pace and BRIS Speed ratings have regressed in each race since breaking his maiden back in September. Likes to be on the lead if not right up on it and with the anticipated fast pace here it might hurt him at the end. 

EX/TRI BX: 5,6,2,3

Fred "Cappy" Capossela Stakes 3/9 Aqueduct 4:52 EST

Three-Year-Olds, 6f

EX/TRI BX: 5,1,3,4

Let the "Championship Series" Begin

                                                                             Violence

The first ever "Prep Season" which was based on a 10-4-2-1 point scale for the Kentucky Derby is officially in the history books. While there are many horses with points already attached to their names, none of these three-year-olds are a lock for the Derby yet as they might have been in years past. We now turn the page to the first leg of the "Championship Series" where the points jump to 50-20-10-5 and a win in one of these next eight races should all but guarantee a spot in the Derby.

The Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park on Saturday dates back to 1945 and is the stepping stone to the Florida Derby (G1) in March. This is one of the more prominent early Derby preps but you have to go back 13 years to find the last winner (1995 Thunder Gulch) of this race that went on to win the Derby. Before that you have to go all the way back to 1979 and Spectacular Bid.

Violence, winner of the CashCall Futurity (G1) over the Cushion Track at Hollywood Park back in December returns to the dirt for his sophomore debut in the 10-horse FOY field as he looks to remain undefeated for Todd Pletcher. Falling Sky, the winner of Sam F. Davis (G3) is the only other graded stakes winner entered. There are some other promising three-year-olds such as Orb, Majestic Hussar, Elmutahid and Cerro that look to place themselves in the Derby picture if they hit the board on Saturday.

A star looks to rise on Saturday at Fair Grounds in the Risen Star (G2) as 14 horses are scheduled to load the gate in the Bayou. History will not be on the side of the winner that emerges from this full field. Not one horse has gone on to win the Derby after capturing the Risen Star or the Louisiana Derby Trial as it was previously named which was first run in 1973.

Normany Invasion makes his anticipated three-year-old debut in this star-studded field after an impressive closing run in the Remsen (G2) where he missed out by a nose. Oxbow will be the one to run down after running away with the LeComte (G3) over this track just last month by an astounding 11 3/4 lengths. Bob Baffert ships in Code West from California while Todd Pletcher is represented by Palace Malace and Steve Asmussen has recent maiden winner Proud Strike.

With fewer races to run in under the new points system the fields will likely be larger from here on out. This weekend is going to separate the contenders from the pretenders and there will be some talented horses exiting with little to no points. Saturday can't come soon enough as we get closer and closer to that first Saturday in May.

Fountain of Youth (G2)
2/23 Gulfstream Park 5:35 EST

Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/16m

3 Violence 9-5
Undefeated, Grade 1 and Grade 2 winner will be tough to beat here as the Risen Star looks to be the tougher field of the two races this weekend. 

4 Majestic Hussar 6-1
Coming off a 104 BRIS Speed rating over this track in an allowance optional claimer last out tries two turns for the first time. Look for him to hit the board and could upset Violence if he handles the distance.

10 Falling Sky 6-1
If he shows better form coming down the stretch than last race he should be there at the end. 

5 Elmutahid 20-1
Recent maiden winner for Kiaran McLaughlin over this track in his first start on dirt will be interesting to watch as he makes a huge jump in class here. Could be a sleeper in the field. 

Ex/Tri Bx: 3,4,10,6

Risen Star (G2)
2/23 Fair Grounds 5:57 EST

Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/16m

10 Oxbow 5-1

D. Wayne Lukas has this colt peaking at the right time. If he improves off his romp in the LeComte then he will be very tough to run down. This son of Awesome Again has the pedigree to run all day and is Lucas' best chance to return to the Derby this year (unless Titletown Five gets going here soon). 

9 Normandy Invasion 5-2

Fair Grounds is historically not kind to closers. Will be closing late, but a 1/16 of a mile shorter than the Remsen certainly will not help this Chad Brown colt's chances in running down Oxbow. 

2 Code West 6-1

Ran second to the impressive Super Ninety Nine last out in an optional claimer and is one of many talented up-and-coming three-year-olds entered. Bob Baffert will have the son of Lemon Drop Kid ready to try and pull off the upset. 

1 Proud Strike 8-1

Impressive 7 1/2-length maiden winner over this track at the distance last month could pull off the upset if he handles the large jump in class here. 

6 Palace Malace 6-1
Don't usually like putting five horses up here but with a full field and track likely to come up wet it's tough not to include him as he is the only one to run over a sloppy track.

Ex/Tri Bx: 10,9,2,1,6