Blue Grass Stakes/Arkansas Derby

Only one more weekend to go and we can start piecing the Kentucky Derby puzzle together. The major Derby preps wrap up on Saturday with races at Keeneland and Oaklawn Park. Both preps offer 170 points and a potential starting gate in the Derby. Tapiture is the only three-year-old running this Saturday that has already secured enough points which makes these two races all that more intriguing.

The historical Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland drew a full field of 14 with one also-eligible. Harry's Holiday and Vinceremos both sit on the Derby bubble with 20 points. A first through fourth-place finish in here for either of these two colts would certainly give them enough points. Coastline sits in the 24th position with 13 points, Dance With Fate has 8 points and Casiguapo with 5. Those three will probably need to hit the board if they want to move on to Louisville. All others would need to claim one of the top two spots if they want a shot at the roses in a few weeks.

One could argue that the Blue Grass might just be the most prestigious Derby prep race out there. A total of 23 Derby winners have come from this race, with the last one being Street Sense in 2007 (the first and only to do so over the Keeneland Polytrack). The track is switching back over to dirt this coming summer. So, it shouldn't be long before the next Derby winner emerges from the Blue Grass again to join the likes of Whirlaway, Northern Dancer, Forward Pass, Spectacular Bid, Northern Dancer, Strike The Gold and Thunder Gulch. 

The Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn is represented by Tapiture, who has already claimed a gate with 42 points. Ride On Curlin is currently sitting in 22nd place with 15 points and has to have a top four finish. Strong Mandate enters with 11 points and Commissioner with 10. Both need to hit the board if they want to be racing on the first Saturday in May.

The Lexington Stakes at Keeneland next Saturday is the only other  prep left and that is a hail mary attempt to get into the Derby with only 17 total points given out.

Blue Grass Stakes (G1) 1 1/8 m
4/12 Keeneland 5:45 EDT

13 Medal Count 9-2

After fading in the Fountain of Youth (G2) two starts back, came back in the Transylvania (G3) just last week with a victory over the Polytrack. Will be a tough task coming back within a week but the move he made turning for home in that race was pretty impressive. 

5 Bobby's Kitten 3-1

Has shown promise on the turf and will try to continue that success in his first start over the Polytrack. The always dangerous Kitten's Joy offspring will try to give the Ramsey's their first Blue Grass victory. 

14 Gala Award 5-1

Sold as a yearling for $1550K at the Keeneland September sale and shouldn't have a problem with the 1 1/8 miles. Won the Palm Beach (G3) at Gulfstream last month at this distance and is another that is making his first start over the Poly. 

11 Coastline 8-1

Returns to the track that he broke his maiden at as a two-year-old. Exiting a third-place finish by a neck at this distance in the Spiral (G3) at Turfway Park, which is also a Polytrack.  Likes the surface and tough to write off. 

$24 Blue Grass Bankroll

$0.50 TRI BX: 13, 5, 14, 11

$1 EX BX: 13, 5, 14, 11 

Arkansas Derby (G1) 1 1/8 m

4/12 Oaklawn Park 7:07 EDT

1 Bayern 9-5

The much anticipated stakes debut of Bayern, who Baffert has dubbed as the next Bodemeister. Has not raced since winning an allowance at Santa Anita by 15 lengths in February. If he can get the distance, just might be too fast for the rest of this field. 

6 Commissioner 8-1

Has proven that getting 1 1/8 miles will not be an issue. Flopped in the Fountain of Youth and came back in the Sunland Derby (G3) only to get third after stumbling out of the gate and losing a shoe.  Still unable to throw in the towel on this guy and he should hit the board here. 

3 Tapiture 9-5

Has not finished off the board in six lifetime starts, but the added distance may be stretching it for him. Should give another solid effort and it wouldn't be a surprise is he wins. 

$12 Arkansas Derby Bankroll

$2 TRI BX: 1, 6, 3 

*Hit the TRI in the SA Derby winning some of the bankroll back from last week. Did not have Wicked Strong in the Wood on my ticket. 

April has arrived

The first Friday in April is finally here and so is the opening of the much anticipated Spring Meet at Keeneland located in Lexington, KY.

This will definitely be a unique meet for the historic race course as it will be the last time racing is run over the Polytrack. It was just announced this week that the track will change back over to dirt this summer, marking the end of an eight year run that Keeneland had with the all-weather surface. Hate it or love it, the switch should certainly bring the Bluegrass Stakes back from the dead.

It is hard to imagine that we are only one month away from the Derby and yet there is still no consensus on the Derby favorite. Top Billing and Honor Code were once at the top of lists but have since fallen off due to injury. Cairo Prince was the next to be dubbed the favorite after his performance in the Holy Bull (G2), but he came up short in the Florida Derby (G1) last week.  It looks to be California Chrome's turn following his impresive run in the San Felipe (G2). He will get a chance to cement himself as the leader if he can tackle the Santa Anita Derby on Saturday. Of course there is also the Wood Memorial (G1) being run at Aqueduct. If Samraat were to win again, it would be tough to not put him near the top heading into the Derby undefeated.

Wood Memorial (G1) 1 1/8m
4/5 Aqueduct 5:40 EDT

8 Samraat 7-2

Just keeps on winning. Carried 123 lbs. in the Gotham and that didn't stop him. Hard not to back this colt on his home track. 

11 Social Inclusion 2-1

Blew away Honor Code and an allowance field at Gulfstream Park last month and could be a monster. That being said, I need to wait until he shows he can repeat that performance on another track. Can he wire at Aqueduct going 1 1/8 miles?

4 Harpoon 8-1

Takes one last shot at the Derby and has been training well. Had trouble with his outside post last time and draws near the inside here. Don't count out the Pletcher colt. 

10 Uncle Sigh 5-1 

Continues to play second fiddle to Samraat. Had chances to beat him in the Withers and Gotham but couldn't. Don't see him turning the tables here but figures to be in the mix. 

$30 Wood Bankroll

$6 W: 8

$1 TRI BX: 8, 11, 4, 10 

Santa Anita Derby (G1) 1 1/8m
4/5 Santa Anita 6:30 EDT

3 Hoppertunity

After a difficult trip in the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds he traveled to Oaklawn and won the Rebel (G2) in eventful fashion. This lightly-raced colt is still learning and continues to improve with each start.  If he pulls off the upset, the curse of Apollo will be the talk leading up to the Derby. 

5 California Chrome

One of the more seasoned three-year-olds on the Derby trail comes off a 7 1/4-length win in the San Felipe. The early Derby favorite for many will get a chance to prove himself going 1 1/8 miles.  

6 Candy Boy

Returns after an almost two-month layoff. Has been training well and should be in contention in the end. Will have to hit the board if he wants to make the trip to Louisville. 

$20 SA Derby Bankroll

$8 W: 3

$2 TRI BX: 3, 5, 6

*It has been a rough start to the year in trying to figure out these unpredictable three-year-olds. On to the Wood & SA Derby. 

Gotham Preview

                                                                      Gotham City

This past weekend Intense Holiday (53 pts) and Wildcat Red (50 pts) were the first sophomores to punch their ticket to Louisville by capturing the Risen Star and FOY. On Saturday another three-year-old will join them in the quest for the roses by taking down the Gotham at Aqueduct.

Samraat (10 pts) was made the 5-2 morning-line favorite in the 11-horse field after winning the Withers (G3) by a length over Uncle Sigh (4 pts) at this track in early February. In Trouble, the only other graded winner entered, makes his anticipated return to the races for the first time since capturing the Futurity (G2) at Belmont back in September. The Gotham is an interesting race on paper as there are more questions than answers attached to many of these entries.

Gotham (G3) 1 1/16m
3/1 Aqueduct 4:17 EST

10 Harpoon 10-1

Has finished no worse than second in all five lifetime starts and looks to add some Derby points to his resume on Saturday. Lost out by a nose in his stakes debut in the Sam F. Davis (G3) on February 1 after dropping back to sixth around the turn. It looked like he had no shot in that race, but he angled to the outside turning for home and came flying down the stretch to just miss at the wire. Like him to have a better trip from the outside post since he seemed to have trouble being down on the inside last time out. The gray did break his maiden from post No. 11 in a 14-horse field to close out his two-year-old campaign in December. Tough to pass up or leave off your tickets with the price that will be hanging over his head. 

1A Samraat 5-2

After running against state-breds in his first three starts, he stepped into open company last out and gave one heck of an effort to get his name up on the Derby Leaderboard. Tough to knock a horse that has yet to lose, but the competition will be tougher in here than what he faced in the Withers. The New-York bred is going to have to run the race of his young career on Saturday to secure a spot in the Derby. 

3 Financial Mogul 10-1

Expected him to show more in the Holy Bull (G2) after running second to Cairo Prince in the Nashua (G2) two starts back. A closer that made a nice move in the Holy Bull but flattened out at the top of the stretch. Will definitely need to take a step forward here if his connections want to start talking Derby. Like him to be coming on late to catch a piece of the board on Saturday. 

$24 Gotham Bankroll

$12 W: 10

$2 EX BX: 10, 1, 3 = $12

*Came up empty in the FOY and Risen Star. Played Commissioner and Top Billing on top in the exotic ticket, which didn't pan out. Had Intense Holiday in an exacta box but Hoppertunity and Rise Up failed to hit the board. On to another week of racing...

Championship Series

The stakes go up this weekend in the Fountain of Youth and Risen Star as the "Championship Series" begins on the road to the Kentucky Derby. The points are elevated from 10-4-2-1 to 50-20-10-5 and a win in any points race from here on out guarantees a spot in the 20-horse field.

The FOY at Gulfstream Park kicks off the Championship Series on Saturday and will catapult the promising contenders onto the Florida Derby next month. Orb won this race last year and went on to win the Derby, breaking the 13-year drought of a Derby winner emerging from this race.

The Risen Star drew an even larger field of 14 with two also-eligibles. History has not shined on the star of this race in years past. Not a single horse has gone on to win the Derby after capturing the Risen Star or the Louisiana Derby Trial, as it was previously named, which dates back to 1973.

Full fields in both stakes will certainly give these young sophomores a sample test of what the Derby will be like on that first Saturday in May. Time is running out to start claiming those much needed Derby points and there are some talented colts that need to get on the board this weekend.

The Gulfstream Park card is absolutely loaded on Saturday and Race 6 features a 1 1/16-mile allowance race for three-year-olds. One or more of the 10 entered into this race most likely will be seen in a Derby prep race their next time out.

Fountain of Youth (G2) 1 1/16m
2/22 Gulfstream Park 5:33 EST

1 Commissioner 3-1

Makes stakes debut and has proven distance is certainly not an issue. Has already beat Top Billing once and will try to do so again on Saturday. The son of A. P. Indy has increased his BRIS Speed rating in each of his three races and if he improves off his last effort will certainly be tough to beat. Anyone writing off the Commish due to his post must have forgotten last year's winner of the FOY and what post he broke from.

12 Top Billing 7-2

The son of Curlin will be coming on late and if he can maneuver his way through this deep field, watch out. Got squeezed in the stretch in his race against the Commissioner but took a slight lead and was unable to pull away. It will be interesting to see these two battle it out again in stakes company with points on the line.

2 We Miss Artie 8-1

Was near the front in the stretch of the BC Juvenile before fading to seventh, but only lost by four lengths. Came back against stakes company at this distance over the grass to lose out by a head to promising three-year-old Storming Inti. BRIS Speed figures are gradually increasing with each race and one that could easily hit the board. 

4 Wildcat Red 6-1

Lost out in the GP Derby by a head to General A Rod but came back earlier this month to win the Hutchenson (G3) at seven furlongs in an impressive time. Likely to be on the lead turning for home. How far will his speed carry him?

5 General A Rod 5-1

Winner of the GP Derby on New Year's Day has not raced since. Unlike The Commissioner, it's up in the air if this colt will be up to the task to take on graded company after the layoff. 

$36 FOY Bankroll

$12 W: 1

$1 TRI BX: 1,12/1,2,4,5,12/1,2,4,5,12 = $24

Risen Star (G2) 1 1/16m
2/22 Fair Grounds 6:25 EST

8 Hoppertunity 8-1

Recent maiden winner steps right into stakes competition but his pedigree would indicate that the distance will definitely not be an issue. With no real standout in here, this colt could steal the race for Bob Baffert. 

9 Intense Holiday 8-1

The class of the race will be closing late and has an interesting backstory, which explains his effort late in races. Been running in graded stakes since breaking his maiden, but has finished no better than third (Holy Bull). Should catch a piece of the board but can he step up and capture that first stakes that has eluded him?

2 Rise Up 4-1

Makes his three-year-old debut after winning the Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) by six lengths back in November. Has been training well since his last race but the long layoff is definitely a concern. Another one that will see how far his speed will take him against much tougher competition. 

$12 Risen Star Bankroll

$2 EX BX: 8,9,2 = $12

Race 6 @ GP (3:05):

Mexikoma 5-1

Colt that can supposedly run all day. Broke his maiden by 14 lengths, going one mile back in September and then emerged in the BC Juvenile to finish a closing sixth. Might need to get a race under him after the long layoff but one to definitely keep an eye on. There are a lot of handicappers high on this horse to do promising things in the near future. 

*Cairo Prince paid $37.20 on a $12 ticket to keep me out of the hole in the first three-year-old race posted this year. Good Luck as the Championship Series kicks off Saturday!