Keeneland Fall Meet

             

It is that time of year again in the Bluegrass when the temperature starts to cool down, the leaves start to change their colors and of course, Keeneland kicks off its Fall meet tomorrow. There are 15 graded stakes races over the next four weekends and nine of those are packed into opening weekend at the historic track, including the $400,000 Breeders Futurity (G1) on Saturday. 

The always unpredictable Breeders' Futurity draws a full field plus some Saturday as the two-year-olds go 1 1/16 miles on the "Polytrack". The field is set for 14 with two also eligibles in another "Win and You're In" race for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on November 3rd. Todd Pletcher has two of the 14 entries in Charming Kitten and the morning-line favorite Tizracer. Pataky Kidd who is entering off a win in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3) is the only graded winner to load the gates in this one. The race is wide open as another colt looks to join the top of this young class heading into the Juvenile. 

Up North another field of two-year-olds load the gates Saturday at Belmont in the $400,000 Champagn (G1) to try and secure a spot in next month's Juvenile. While there are only half of the entries in this race as the Futurity, the talent makes up for lack of entrants in this one. Shanghai Bobby and Bern Identity are the two graded stakes winners in this field while Archwarrior, Goldencents and Micromanage all exit very impressive maiden wins. Only going a mile here over the maintrack but the winner of this one will certainly be one of the favorites for the Juvenile. 

The two-year-olds are taking to the track all over the country by now as they try and vie to be the next Kentucky Derby winner as the "Road to the Kentucky Derby" is officially underway. Power Broker broke his maiden in the FrontRunner (G1) at Santa Anita last weekend and he established himself as one of the early favorites for the Juvenile. 

Breeders' Futurity (G1)
10/6 Keeneland 4:49 EST

Two-Year-Olds, 1 1/16m

Race #8

Tizracer 4-1

Coming off a maiden win at Belmont going a mile in which he won by 10 1/2 lengths and posted a triple speed rating. 

Pataky Kid 12-1

Broke maiden and won Grade 3 races at Arlington over all-weather track last two times out. 

Balance The Books 5-1

Broke maiden in the With Anticipation (G2) on the turf at 1 1/16 miles. First start off turf. 

Dynamic Sky 12-1

Come from behind win to break maiden in stakes race at Woodbine on all-weather track. 

EX/TRI BX: 5,6,11,12

*Good luck with this full-field of unpredictable two-year-olds

Champagn (G1)

10/6 Belmont 4:34 EST

Two-Year-Olds, 1m

Race #8

Shanghai Bobby 3-1
Grade 2 winner, looks to go 4 for 4 and stay undefeated against a very talented field. Considered by many as the top two-year-old right now. 

Goldencents 3-1
Impressive maiden winner in debut posted triple speed rating and won wire-to-wire by 7 1/4 lengths. Going to be tough to catch only going a mile if he repeats last performance. 

Fortify 6-1
Long shot I'm not counting out after second place place finish to Shanghai Bobby in Hopeful (G2). Looks to improve again in third start at longer distance. 

Archwarrior 5-2
Another impressive maiden winner in his debut is trained by Pletcher. 

EX/TRI BX: 2,1,5,4

*Not going to be surprised who wins this with so many impressive maiden winners entered in here. 

Super Saturday

                                                                        Santa Anita

"Super Saturday" closes out the month of September with 11 Graded races across the US. On the East Coast, Belmont is host to six graded races including the $1,000,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup(G1). While out on the West Coast, Santa Anita opens its fall meet with five graded races on the card Saturday. All of these graded races are preps and considered "Win and You're In" races for the Breeders' Cup, which is only a month away.

While it may be called "Super Saturday" this year's three-year-old class certainly cannot feel too super and it doesn't look very promising the rest of the year either. Atigun and Fast Falcon are the only two representing this three-year-old class in the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Saturday. Both of whom have not won a graded race yet in their career. After winning the Jim Dandy(G2) and Travers(G1), Alpha looked to be the next promising three-year-old to carry this class, but ran a disappointing 6th in the Pennsylvania Derby last time out. Dullahan is making his next start on turf in the Jamaica Handicap and it is uncertain if he will even take a shot at the Classic.

On a positive note the 2013 Run for the Roses officially begins. The new "Road to the Kentucky Derby" point system will be underway this Saturday as the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket and the FrontRunner(G1)(formerly known as the Norfolk) at Santa Anita kick-off things for the two-year-olds. This new system replaces cash earnings with points being awarded to the top four finishers. It starts with the Prep Schedule (September-February) awarding points of 10-4-2-1 with the points increasing to 50-20-10-5 for the "First Leg of Series" (February-March) and ending with the "Second Leg of Series" (April) awarding points of 100-40-20-10.

The $250,000 FrontRunner will be the first time these young two-year-olds will be tested at 1 1/16 miles. Know More is the only one coming into this race with a graded win, while Bob Baffert has three horses entered. It is an interesting field with a lot of unknown two-year-olds early in their careers who look to make a name for themselves. The winner of this race will find himself loading up in the same gates a month later as one of the favorites in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

FrontRunner(G1)
9/29 Santa Anita 7:14 EST

Two-Year-Olds, 1 1/16m

Race #7

Know More 3-1
Only graded stakes winner in field. Winner of Best Pal(G2) in his debut and second in Del Mar Futurity(G1) last time out. The horse to beat will be there at the end. 

Carving 6-1
One of Baffert's three entries is undefeated in 2 career starts. Only one in race to have a win over the dirt. Might be one of the new names you add to your stable of two-year-olds. 

Dry Summer 5-1
Coming in off back-to-back wins which included a stakes win on the turf. Highest last race speed rating (tie).  Can he transform his success over the all weather and turf to the dirt is the question. 

Gabriel Charles 6-1
Impressive maiden win in debut but followed up with a disappointing sixth-placed finish in the Del Mar Futurity.  Looks to throw out last race due to bad trip and you can't count out the son of 2008 winner Street Hero. 

EX/TRI BX: 7,1,5,2

Dead Heat

                                                                         Dead Heat

With the three-year-old class diminishing after just about every race, this years Travers Stakes did not have the usual hype surrounding it. But once again, the horses that loaded the gates put on quite a show and what a show it was as we witnessed the first ever dead-heat in the 143rd running of the historical "Midsummer Derby."

Alpha, the post time favorite at 2-1 stalked the leaders the entire race and heading into the far turn it looked like he was going to pass on the outside and cruise to victory. But when they were heading for home it was Golden Ticket who shot through along the rail and was the one to catch. I guess you can say Alpha caught him just barely as they both had to share the winners circle. You couldn't have asked for or scripted a better finish than what was provided to us this past Saturday.

Out on the West Coast Dullahan stepped up to the older competition in the Pacific Classic(G1) at Del Mar and showed he is a force to be reckoned with on the poly track. By upsetting the rest of the older field he is now 3 for 3 in his career on the synthetic surface and in doing so punched his ticket to the Breeders' Cup Classic (If that is where his connections point him). While he did not capture one of the Triple Crown races, if he were able to carry over his success on the Poly to the Dirt and take down the Classic, he certainly would be tough to deny an Eclipse Award.

Now this three-year-old class has Alpha, Dullahan and Paynter sitting atop the division but unfortunately each one has a cloud hanging over them. Can Alpha, who now has a grade one win on his resume despite running against less superior competition, be able to hold his own against the older competition? What about Dullahan, who is 0 for 6 when it comes to running on dirt. Will he even run in the Classic? Paynter was supposed to challenge Alpha in the Travers, but he is currently sidelined for who knows how long. November will be here before you know it, so I guess many of these questions will be answered sooner than later.

With Labor Day right around the corner, the races for the two-year-olds will be heating up over the next couple of weeks. Starting on Monday, September 3rd is the 7f Hopeful Stakes(G2) at Saratoga. Wednesday, September 5th is the 7f Del Mar Futurity(G1) at Del Mar. Saturday, September 8th is the 1 mile Arlington-Washington Futurity(G3) at Arlington Park. Keep an eye on these races over the next couple of weeks as you never know if the 2013 Derby winner may come from one of these.

*Had Alpha pegged to win the Travers as we thought he was in a class above the others. While he did win, Golden Ticket surprised many by having a share of the winners circle in another historic Travers Stakes.

Travers Stakes/Midsummer Classic/Midsummer Derby

                                                                  Midsummer Classic

Summer at Saratoga is highlighted this weekend by the third oldest thoroughbred race in racing history. Dating all the way back to 1864, the Travers Stakes or "Midsummer Classic" as it is known, is a historic race for the three-year-olds going 1 1/4 mile. For many, this will be their last test before they step up to face the older competition. The only question this year is, are there any three-year-olds left to run?

I'll Have Another, Bodemeister, Union Rags, Paynter and Hansen all at one point in their short careers were considered at the top of this class. Now, all have either been retired or are currently injured. At the start of 2012, this class looked locked and loaded across the board with talent. Unfortunately, that talent has vanished as this year's Travers Stakes is reduced to Alpha, the 12th place finisher in the Derby, being the highlight of the field this coming Saturday. 

Life is unpredictable and you never know what it has in store. Yes, this year's race is lacking the luster it normally has but you never know when one of these young three-year-olds will take off. Remember, many of these guys are still maturing and have not yet finished growing. For all we know, this race might be featuring a future Breeders' Cup Classic winner. They don't call this race the "Midsummer Derby" for nothing which is why you should still be interested in the 143rd running of this historic race. 

On another note, Dullahan has decided to head out West and try his luck against the older competition. He will be running in the Pacific Classic (A "Win and You're In" race for the BC Classic) at Del Mar this Sunday, where he returns to the synthetic surface for the first time since upsetting Hansen at Keeneland in the Blue Grass Stakes. This horse is 2 for 2 on the poly and hopes to continue that trend after two disappointing finishes in a row on the dirt in the Belmont and Haskell. 

Travers Stakes(G1)
8/25 Saratoga 5:46 EST

Race #12

Alpha 5-2

Coming off a Grade 2 win in the Jim Dandy here at Saratoga last month. 2 for 2 at the Spa is impressive regardless of the competition. Could and should be in a class above the rest of these three-year-olds running this Saturday. 

Street Life 5-1

Son of the 2007 winner, Street Sense certainly doesn't hurt his chances here. Win at this track last month in the Curlin Stakes. Closer who will be coming on at the end should like the 1 1/4 mile distance especially if there is some pace to run at. 

Nonios 4-1

Coming off a second place finish to Paynter last month in the Haskell. Has hit the board in all six of his lifetime starts. Never run further than a 1 1/8 mile, so we will see if he can handle the extra furlong.

Liaison 8-1

Closer who could flirt with hitting the board going 1 1/4 mile. Has experience running against the best of this three-year-old class. 

Ex/Tri BX: 6,5,10,9