Championship Series

The stakes are raised this weekend as the "Kentucky Derby Championship Series" kicks off with the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park and the Risen Star at Fairgrounds. Points are elevated from 10-4-2-1 to 50-20-10-5 for the top four finishers. There is also the Southwest at Oaklawn Park on Sunday, the last race of the "Prep Season", which had to be rescheduled due to inclement weather last week.

Fountain of Youth (G2) 1 1/16m
2/21 Gulfstream Park 5:30 EST

4 Gorgeous Bird 6-1

- Upstart and Frosted will be tough to upstage in here, but the Marylou Whitney Stables homebred has a shot. Looked very impressive picking off horses in his allowance win over the track last month and should enjoy his first start around two turns. Has to handle the class test, but is primed to breakout on Saturday.

$15 FOY Bankroll

$5 WPS: 4

Risen Star (G2) 1 1/16m
2/21 Fairgrounds 6:24 EST

8 Keen Ice 8-1

- Powerful closer ships to the Bayou after not being able to make up much ground in the short stretch at GP in the Holy Bull (G3) last time out. His gallop out in that race was promising and the longer stretch will benefit this son of Curlin. Has improved BRIS Speed figures in each start and could capture his first stakes here.

$15 Risen Star Bankroll

$5 WPS: 8

*Keen Ice couldn't get up to complete the TRI in the Holy Bull, but I'm giving him another shot in the Risen Star. Will play it safe and put him across the board as he will likely drift up to double-digit odds once again. Going with Gorgeous Bird to WPS in the FOY as it will take a big effort to pull off the upset. 

2015 KY Derby Bankroll: $43.60

Holy Bull Preview

There have been 14 Kentucky Derby point races run so far, but on Saturday the Holy Bull (G2) at Gulfstream Park is the prep race that truly starts to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Derby nominations are on the horizon and the countdown is on until that first Saturday in May.

Holy Bull (G2) 1 1/16m
1/24 Gulfstream Park 4:34 EST

 

1 Frosted 5-2

Improved speed figures in each start. Only lost by a 1/2-length in his stakes debut while running wide the entire race. Been training down at Palm Meadows and is making his first start outside of NY. Should sit just behind the leaders and be ready to pounce turning for home.

2 Keen Ice 6-1

Got up to finish third in the Remsen (G2), but wasn't catching the leaders on that track that day. Son of Curlin cuts back to 1 1 1/16 miles which might be a little short for his liking, but he is working great over the track for trainer Dale Romans. There is more speed lined up in here and he has a shot to run them down on Saturday.

 

8 Upstart 2-1

Multiple Grade 1-placed ridgling will likely be the post time favorite after his rough trip in the BC Juvenile. Should definitely be in the mix on Saturday, but I'm taking a wait and see approach before I jump on his bandwagon.

 

$24 Holy Bull Bankroll

 

$12 Win: 1

$2 TRI BX: 1, 2, 8

*First post since the Breeders' Futurity, so we will get the Derby bankroll going again. Landed on Frosted for the win, as I think he fits perfectly in here. Will put him in a TRI with Keen Ice and Upstart.

2015 KY Derby Bankroll: $67.60

 

Kentucky Derby 20

It's that time... Juveniles graduate to sophomores. 1982 and Apollo are relevant again. Fantasy stables get drafted. Derby dreams become reality. Below is a list of 20 Kentucky Derby hopefuls I could see making the starting gates in May.

Kentucky Derby 20

American Pharaoh (Pioneerof The Nile)
- Had one of the most impressive juvenile performances of the year.

Blofeld (Quality Road)
- Multiple Grade 2 winner, undefeated in three starts on three separate tracks.

Calculator (In Summation)
- Multiple Grade 1-placed, still looking to break maiden. 

Carpe Diem (Giant's Causeway)
- Only loss was a runner-up finish in the BC Juvenile, 10 furlongs won't be an issue.

Conquest Bigluck E (Lookin At Lucky) 
- Looked good in winning first two starts around one turn. 

Dortmund (Big Brown)
- Los Alamitos Futurity winner still without a loss. 

El Kabeir (Scat Daddy)
- KYJC winner, just not sure how far he wants to go. Jerome up next.

Far Right (Notional)
- Broke maiden at Churchill, closed to get in the money last two times out against stakes co.

Frosted (Tapt)
- Remsen runner-up, keeps improving with each start. 

Imperia (Medaglia d'Oro)
- Runner-up by a head in dirt debut in KYJC. 

Keen Ice (Curlin) 
- 3rd in the Remsen, powerful closer. 

Money Multiplier (Lookin At Lucky) 
- Half-brother to Intense Holiday, makes debut Saturday at Aqueduct. 

Mr. Z (Malibu Moon)
- Game competitor, experience won't be a problem for this colt out of Lukas' barn.

Nasa (Smarty Jones)
- PA Nursery winner trying to follow in dad's footsteps, lots of work left to do. Starts Sat. in Jerome.

Ocho Ocho Ocho (Street Sense)
- Perfect in three starts, posted back-to-back triple digit BRIS Speed ratings.

One Lucky Dane (Lookin At Lucky)
- Disappointing stakes debut in BC Juvenile, may bounce back for Baffert as a 3 yo.

Spring Quality (Quality Road)
- Debut winner at Keeneland. PA-bred entered in alw race at Parx on Sunday.

Texas Red (Afleet Alex)
- BC Juvenile winner, odds are against.

Toasting Master (Congrats)
- ALW winner at Churchill, entered in Spectacular Bid S. at Gulfstream Park on Sat. 

Upstart (Flatter)
- Multiple Grade 1-placed, figures have declined in each start since stakes win. 

Fall Stars Weekend

Keeneland kicked off Fall Stars weekend on Friday as the weather in Lexington, Ky was in the midst of a major change. With overcast skies mixed in with rays of sunshine, high winds and spurts of downpours the temperature slowly dropped from a pleasant 72 degrees as the day carried on. Saturday figures to be one of the colder opening weekends in sometime. The rain will be gone but with a high of only 54, it will feel like winter to many as the crowd will witness the Breeders' Futurity being run on dirt for the first time in over 10 years.

The Breeder's Cup is only a month away and this weekend marks the last two points races toward the 2015 Kentucky Derby (the Grey at Woodbine on Sunday is also run for points), before the BC Futurity next month.

Breeders' Futurity S. (G1)
10/4 @ 5:08 EST

11 Keen Ice 15-1

Could not break his maiden at Ellis Park first out which is a concern, but came back at Churchill and stretched out to a mile in his next start to do so. Son of Curlin just may enjoy the longer distance here and will be coming from the back of the pack. If there is a contested pace on the front end, he could pick up the pieces late to pull off the upset at big odds. Has a very nice pedigree which includes Verrazano in his female family. 

5 Carpe Diem 4-1

Lived up to his 1600k price tag by winning at Saratoga in his debut for trainer Todd Pletcher. Tough to gauge how these juveniles will take to two turns for the first time, but being by Giants Causeway it shouldn't be a problem. Very interested in watching this colt run on Saturday, especially considering his half-brother J.B.'s Thunder, who won this race in 2010. 

6 Bold Conquest 9-2

Was coming on strong (100 LP BRIS Speed rating) in the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill last month, but hung late and lost by a neck in a race that produced a slow time at this distance. Trainer Steve Asmussen should have him ready to fire again in here. 

7 Conquest Tsunami 9-2

Ontario-bred broke his maiden in his debut here in April over the Polytrack and then went to Woodbine to win three in a row including a race on the grass. Is undefeated but making first start on dirt and going around two turns. Tough to leave out though. 

$24 Breeders' Futurity Bankroll

$4 WPS: 11

$1 EX BX: 11, 5, 6, 7

*Taking the 11 across the board at long odds and will try to hit the exacta with top four choices to pad the Derby bankroll.

Champagn S. (G1)
10/4 @ 4:29 EST

$12 Champagn Bankroll

$2 EX BX: 1, 4, 6

*Going for the exact with the recent maiden winners.

*Made a silly four-horse exacta bet in the FrontRunner as the heavy favorite won. Hit the exacta but lost money on the $24 ticket I played. 

2015 KY Derby Bankroll: $103.60