Saturday, November 30, 2013

KDFW - Remsen - KyJC

Turkey day has passed so why not make some future bets this weekend. Thanksgiving 2013 marks the first time that the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) is open for betting on the two-year-olds. This future wager pool was introduced back in 1999 but had always waited until February to kick off. It's never too early to start throwing around Derby hopefuls and the added pool this year should generate buzz and excitement, months in advance of the actual race. Wagering on the first pool closes before the two historical Derby prep races go off at Aqueduct and Churchill Downs on Saturday.

The  Remsen (G2) is the most anticipated of the two preps and will certainly test the stamina of these guys as they try the 1 1/8-mile distance for the first time in their young careers. Honor Code, the 9-5 morning-line favorite, is making his first start since missing out by a neck to Havana in the Champagn (G1) almost two months ago. He looks to join the likes of Johnstown, Carryback, Northern Dancer, Pleasant Colony, Go for Gin, and Thunder Gulch, all who have taken down this race and then gone on to win the Derby the following year.

The Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) is the other big prep and these two-year-olds would love to be back here in May. On paper this group entered Saturday are not as highly touted as the Remsen field, largely because only one horse in the KyJC is listed in the early KDFW pool. Almost Famous is that horse and is the 6-5 favorite on the morning line. He is entering in here off a six-length victory against allowance company over this track just three weeks ago. Five past winners of this race have also captured the Derby, with Super Saver being the last to do so in 2009.

It is tough enough to attempt and pick the Derby winner on the first Saturday in May but to try and do so before these unpredictable juveniles even celebrate their third birthday is borderline insane. But where there's a chance to make money, why not take a shot in the dark. It will be interesting to see how many of the 23 that are currently on the list will even make it to the starting gate five months from now. I wonder what the over/under is on that bet...

Remsen(G2) 1 1/8m
(3:49 EST)

4 Honor Code 9-5
Son of A.P. Indy should have no problem with the added distance and will be coming from the clouds to run down the leader. Tough not to back this colt out of McGaughey's barn after two impressive starts to begin his career. Won't be shocked if he gets beat but will be there at the end to make it interesting. 

1 Noble Moon 6-1
Wild card in here that will be the third-betting choice and might get overlooked a bit. He broke his maiden in his debut by wiring the field and came from last to finish third in Nashua (G2) over the track earlier this month. Despite a not-so-good trip, he still improved his BRIS Speed figs in his second start and it will be interesting to see where he is placed in this race early on. Could pull off the upset with a decent price over his head. 

9 Cairo Prince 2-1
Looks to remain undefeated after coming off a win here at Aqueduct in the Nashua four weeks ago. Made a nice move to take control of the last race and his pedigree suggests he will like to go longer. One of three in here that has just as good a shot as the other two. 

$30 Remsen Bankroll

$6 WPS: 1 = $18

$2 TRI BX: 4,1,9 = $12

Kentucky Jockey Club(G2) 1 1/16m
(5:35 EST)

$2 EX BX: 1,2,6 = $12

KDFW Pool #1

$50 W: All Others 4-5

Others to consider:
Shared Belief: 31-1
Tamarando: 29-1
Tap It Rich: 20-1

*Cashed $153.30 on the Breeders' Cup thanks to hitting the exacta in the Juvenile and tabbing Mucho Macho Man to win the Classic.