Saturday, October 4, 2014

Fall Stars Weekend

Keeneland kicked off Fall Stars weekend on Friday as the weather in Lexington, Ky was in the midst of a major change. With overcast skies mixed in with rays of sunshine, high winds and spurts of downpours the temperature slowly dropped from a pleasant 72 degrees as the day carried on. Saturday figures to be one of the colder opening weekends in sometime. The rain will be gone but with a high of only 54, it will feel like winter to many as the crowd will witness the Breeders' Futurity being run on dirt for the first time in over 10 years.

The Breeder's Cup is only a month away and this weekend marks the last two points races toward the 2015 Kentucky Derby (the Grey at Woodbine on Sunday is also run for points), before the BC Futurity next month.

Breeders' Futurity S. (G1)
10/4 @ 5:08 EST

11 Keen Ice 15-1

Could not break his maiden at Ellis Park first out which is a concern, but came back at Churchill and stretched out to a mile in his next start to do so. Son of Curlin just may enjoy the longer distance here and will be coming from the back of the pack. If there is a contested pace on the front end, he could pick up the pieces late to pull off the upset at big odds. Has a very nice pedigree which includes Verrazano in his female family. 

5 Carpe Diem 4-1

Lived up to his 1600k price tag by winning at Saratoga in his debut for trainer Todd Pletcher. Tough to gauge how these juveniles will take to two turns for the first time, but being by Giants Causeway it shouldn't be a problem. Very interested in watching this colt run on Saturday, especially considering his half-brother J.B.'s Thunder, who won this race in 2010. 

6 Bold Conquest 9-2

Was coming on strong (100 LP BRIS Speed rating) in the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill last month, but hung late and lost by a neck in a race that produced a slow time at this distance. Trainer Steve Asmussen should have him ready to fire again in here. 

7 Conquest Tsunami 9-2

Ontario-bred broke his maiden in his debut here in April over the Polytrack and then went to Woodbine to win three in a row including a race on the grass. Is undefeated but making first start on dirt and going around two turns. Tough to leave out though. 

$24 Breeders' Futurity Bankroll

$4 WPS: 11

$1 EX BX: 11, 5, 6, 7

*Taking the 11 across the board at long odds and will try to hit the exacta with top four choices to pad the Derby bankroll.

Champagn S. (G1)
10/4 @ 4:29 EST

$12 Champagn Bankroll

$2 EX BX: 1, 4, 6

*Going for the exact with the recent maiden winners.

*Made a silly four-horse exacta bet in the FrontRunner as the heavy favorite won. Hit the exacta but lost money on the $24 ticket I played. 

2015 KY Derby Bankroll: $103.60