Friday, January 23, 2015

Holy Bull Preview

There have been 14 Kentucky Derby point races run so far, but on Saturday the Holy Bull (G2) at Gulfstream Park is the prep race that truly starts to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Derby nominations are on the horizon and the countdown is on until that first Saturday in May.
Holy Bull (G2) 1 1/16m
1/24 Gulfstream Park 4:34 EST
1 Frosted 5-2
Improved speed figures in each start. Only lost by a 1/2-length in his stakes debut while running wide the entire race. Been training down at Palm Meadows and is making his first start outside of NY. Should sit just behind the leaders and be ready to pounce turning for home.

2 Keen Ice 6-1
Got up to finish third in the Remsen (G2), but wasn't catching the leaders on that track that day. Son of Curlin cuts back to 1 1 1/16 miles which might be a little short for his liking, but he is working great over the track for trainer Dale Romans. There is more speed lined up in here and he has a shot to run them down on Saturday.
8 Upstart 2-1
Multiple Grade 1-placed ridgling will likely be the post time favorite after his rough trip in the BC Juvenile. Should definitely be in the mix on Saturday, but I'm taking a wait and see approach before I jump on his bandwagon.
$24 Holy Bull Bankroll
$12 Win: 1

$2 TRI BX: 1, 2, 8

*First post since the Breeders' Futurity, so we will get the Derby bankroll going again. Landed on Frosted for the win, as I think he fits perfectly in here. Will put him in a TRI with Keen Ice and Upstart.

2015 KY Derby Bankroll: $67.60


Friday, January 2, 2015

Kentucky Derby 20

It's that time... Juveniles graduate to sophomores. 1982 and Apollo are relevant again. Fantasy stables get drafted. Derby dreams become reality. Below is a list of 20 Kentucky Derby hopefuls I could see making the starting gates in May.

Kentucky Derby 20

American Pharaoh (Pioneerof The Nile)
- Had one of the most impressive juvenile performances of the year.

Blofeld (Quality Road)
- Multiple Grade 2 winner, undefeated in three starts on three separate tracks.

Calculator (In Summation)
- Multiple Grade 1-placed, still looking to break maiden. 

Carpe Diem (Giant's Causeway)
- Only loss was a runner-up finish in the BC Juvenile, 10 furlongs won't be an issue.

Conquest Bigluck E (Lookin At Lucky) 
- Looked good in winning first two starts around one turn. 

Dortmund (Big Brown)
- Los Alamitos Futurity winner still without a loss. 

El Kabeir (Scat Daddy)
- KYJC winner, just not sure how far he wants to go. Jerome up next.

Far Right (Notional)
- Broke maiden at Churchill, closed to get in the money last two times out against stakes co.

Frosted (Tapt)
- Remsen runner-up, keeps improving with each start. 

Imperia (Medaglia d'Oro)
- Runner-up by a head in dirt debut in KYJC. 

Keen Ice (Curlin) 
- 3rd in the Remsen, powerful closer. 

Money Multiplier (Lookin At Lucky) 
- Half-brother to Intense Holiday, makes debut Saturday at Aqueduct. 

Mr. Z (Malibu Moon)
- Game competitor, experience won't be a problem for this colt out of Lukas' barn.

Nasa (Smarty Jones)
- PA Nursery winner trying to follow in dad's footsteps, lots of work left to do. Starts Sat. in Jerome.

Ocho Ocho Ocho (Street Sense)
- Perfect in three starts, posted back-to-back triple digit BRIS Speed ratings.

One Lucky Dane (Lookin At Lucky)
- Disappointing stakes debut in BC Juvenile, may bounce back for Baffert as a 3 yo.

Spring Quality (Quality Road)
- Debut winner at Keeneland. PA-bred entered in alw race at Parx on Sunday.

Texas Red (Afleet Alex)
- BC Juvenile winner, odds are against.

Toasting Master (Congrats)
- ALW winner at Churchill, entered in Spectacular Bid S. at Gulfstream Park on Sat. 

Upstart (Flatter)
- Multiple Grade 1-placed, figures have declined in each start since stakes win.