Thursday, May 16, 2013

139th Preakness

The Shug McGaughey colt stands above the rest of the three-year-old class after an impressive 2 1/2-length victory in the "Run for the Roses" just two short weeks ago. Since breaking his maiden back in November, Orb continues to find ways to run down his rivals in the stretch as he enters Saturday's Preakness on a five-race win streak. Drawing the inside post as the even-money favorite, he looks to make it six in a row and have an opportunity to do something that hasn't been done in 35 years.

Nine horses will load the gates on Saturday to try and spoil the Triple Crown hopes of this promising son of Malibu Moon. There are three newcomers entering with fresh legs while five will try their luck again after failing to beat Orb in the Derby. Orb will be the one to beat again after going off as the post-time favorite at Churchill but the eight other challengers are not too be overlooked as six of them have won graded races during their three-year-old campaign. The Preakness has the making of another classic race as Orb hasn't run away from the fields in any of his five wins.

Preakness Stakes(G1)
5/18 Pimlico @ 6:20 EST

Orb 1-1

- This guy keeps looking better and better. Could be watching a special three-year-old emerge in front of our eyes and after Saturday will only have the 'Belmont Monster' in between him and racing immortality. If you thought drawing the rail was a concern, he already won the Fountain of Youth from the No. 1 post in a nine-horse field. 

Oxbow 15-1

- Tracked crazy fractions in the Derby and still managed to hold on for sixth. With the shorter distance and the pace expected to not be nearly as fast as the Derby, the race sets up well for him to be there at the end for second. 

Will Take Charge 12-1

- Beat Oxbow at the wire in the Risen Star so if I like Oxbow I have to throw Lucas' other colt in the exotics. Was closing in the Derby but had to virtually stop when Verrazano slowed right in front of him. Will be coming on at the end to try and hit the board.

Govenor Charlie 12-1

- Only making his fourth start but was the promising winner of the Sunland Derby (G3). A foot issue kept him out of the Derby but posted a sharp six-furlong work earlier in the week. One that could fill out some exotics. 

*Had three of the top four pegged in the Derby. Revolutionary (3rd), Normandy Invasion (4th) and Orb (1st). Golden Soul spoiled the exotics, while top pick Revolutionary finished third. 

Friday, May 3, 2013

139th Kentucky Derby Final Rankings

Mystified Ticket's Derby Hi-5(Final Rankings)

1) #3 Revolutionary 10-1

- This guy jumped to the top of my list after an improbable run from near last at the top of the stretch to win the Withers (G3) in his three-year-old debut back in February. Look for this colt to live up to his name on Saturday, give Borel his fourth winning Derby mount and Pletcher his second Derby win. 

2) #5 Normandy Invasion 12-1

-  Always in the mix at the end and figures to be there again Saturday as he will be charging late. Lost out by a total of one-length in the Remsen (G2) and Wood (G1) both at a 1 1/8 miles. Is the added distance what this colt needs to run them down at the wire for his first stakes score?

3) #16 Orb 7-2

- Tough to bet against this favorite out of Shug McGaughey's barn with the red-hot Joel Rosario aboard. Enters Derby on a four-race win streak. 

4) #10 Palace Malace 20-1

- The of son Curlin is the sleeper not too many are talking about. Has hit the board in all but one of his six starts and should have no problem with the distance. Has yet to show his full potential, gets blinkers for the first time and is one that can't be overlooked. Keep in mind there is a chance of rain in Louisville on Saturday and he posted a triple digit BRIS Speed rating over a sloppy track in his three-year-old debut. 

5)  #14 Verrazano 4-1

- Tries to become only the eighth horse to leave the Derby undefeated and also has the curse of Apollo hanging over his head if you believe in that stuff. Enters race 4 for 4 and posted triple digit BRIS Speed ratings twice. Tough to dismiss. 

Don't Count Out...

#2 Oxbow 30-1

- No excuses for wide trips here. Has an inside post and will look to be right up on the lead. This guy supposedly can run all day and with a good break from the gate he might be there in the end to fill out some exotics. 

#12 Itsmyluckyday 15-1
- Posted top BRIS Speed rating of any of the three-year-olds. Must be able to rebound from Florida Derby (G1) loss, take to the Churchill track and get the distance. 

#8 Goldencents 5-1

- Winner of the Santa Anita Derby must control his speed if he wants any chance to be there at the end. Looms dangerous if you think he can go 1 1/4 mile and build off his last win. 

#9 Overanalyze 15-1

- Winner of the Arkansas Derby is flying under the radar but must improve figures off his last two performances if he is to compete with this group. 

#18 Frac Daddy 50-1

- Broke his maiden by 9 3/4 lengths and lost out by a neck in the KY Jockey Club (G2) in his two starts over the Churchill track.