141st Kentucky Derby Preview

The week of the Kentucky Derby has arrived. A full field of 20 unpredictable three-year-olds look to capture one of the most historical sporting events in history and be talked about for years to come. On the first Saturday in May you need fight, stamina and just a little bit of luck to emerge from the 1 1/4-mile test on top. That luck begins on Wednesday with the post position draw.

Derby Hi-5

8 Dortmund 3-1

This big colt has the looks of a Derby winner and has backed it up on the track to this point in his career. He is undefeated in six starts. Has won on the lead, come from off the pace and had to fight back after losing the lead in the stretch. Improved his BRIS Speed ratings with each start. One of his wins comes over the Churchill Downs track in an allowance race back in November. Baffert doesn't ship a two-year-old across the country without a reason. There is not much to knock about him. As long as he doesn't get stopped in traffic, this son of Big Brown will mimic his dad and be crowned the Kentucky Derby champ. 

2 Carpe Diem 8-1

 

The way he put away the Breeders' Futurity field at Keeneland last fall was an indication that he might be a star in the making. Closed to get runner-up in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile in his next start, while having a wide trip, is his only loss to date. Received triple-digit BRIS Speed and Late Pace ratings in his Blue Grass Stakes win last time out, which is what you want to see heading into the Derby. This sophomore has answered all the questions and will have no problem with the classic distance. Count on him being there at the end to hit the board and possibly coming away wearing the roses. 

15 Frosted 15-1

There were a lot of questions surrounding the gray colt this spring, but he answered them in the Wood Memorial just a few weeks ago. He was on the right path until his debacle in the Fountain of Youth, where he looked like the sure winner until stopping at the top of the stretch. After a minor throat surgery, Kiaran McLaughlin has a three-year-old that could pull off the upset and give him his first Derby victory. Enters with the highest BRIS Speed rating, 107. 

14 Keen Ice 50-1

You either love him or hate him and I'm one of those on the Keen Ice bandwagon. He's not fast, but is a colt that can run all day and has shown to be a powerful closer. I was hooked after watching him break his maiden at Churchill. He was eight lengths off the lead in the stretch that day and had another gear, where he surged to win at the wire by a head. There should be a decent pace on the front that he can close into, it is just a matter of how much ground he leaves himself to make up. A lot would need to go his way to have a chance to shock this field, but it is not out of the question for him to hit the board. 

18 American Pharoah 5-2

Some have called him a freak. He has even been compered to Michael Jordan and Seattle Slew. That is some tough company being thrown his way. Only loss came in his debut, over polytrack, back in August. This is the type of horse that may win by 4-5 lengths or finish off the board. I choose the latter, as he has yet to really be tested and 10 furlongs in a 20-horse field may be a stretch for this colt. He might be the real deal and we find out on Saturday. 

Don't Count Out...

5 Danzig Moon 30-1

 

If the race was run on pedigree alone, he would take the cake. Didn't break his maiden until February, but did finish second over this track in his second career start back in October. Enters in here off a runner-up finish in the Blue Grass, where he got a 102 BRIS Late Pace figure. Distance won't be an issue and he has a chance to fill out the exotics. 

 

10 Firing Line 12-1

Never finished worse than second in five career starts. Only got beat by a head in both races against Dortmund. Tough to gauge since he opted for the Sunland Derby instead of staying at Santa Anita. Would have liked to see him take on the son of Big Brown going 1 1/8 miles to have a stronger opinion. The 1 1/4 distance worries me, but he is also one that can't be overlooked.  
 

*This year's Derby has the potential to be one of those races that you look back on and are impressed with the talent that was in the field. 2007? You could make a case for many of the these three-year-olds entered this year. The draw on Wednesday should help finalize predictions. 

Championship Series

The stakes are raised this weekend as the "Kentucky Derby Championship Series" kicks off with the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park and the Risen Star at Fairgrounds. Points are elevated from 10-4-2-1 to 50-20-10-5 for the top four finishers. There is also the Southwest at Oaklawn Park on Sunday, the last race of the "Prep Season", which had to be rescheduled due to inclement weather last week.

Fountain of Youth (G2) 1 1/16m
2/21 Gulfstream Park 5:30 EST

4 Gorgeous Bird 6-1

- Upstart and Frosted will be tough to upstage in here, but the Marylou Whitney Stables homebred has a shot. Looked very impressive picking off horses in his allowance win over the track last month and should enjoy his first start around two turns. Has to handle the class test, but is primed to breakout on Saturday.

$15 FOY Bankroll

$5 WPS: 4

Risen Star (G2) 1 1/16m
2/21 Fairgrounds 6:24 EST

8 Keen Ice 8-1

- Powerful closer ships to the Bayou after not being able to make up much ground in the short stretch at GP in the Holy Bull (G3) last time out. His gallop out in that race was promising and the longer stretch will benefit this son of Curlin. Has improved BRIS Speed figures in each start and could capture his first stakes here.

$15 Risen Star Bankroll

$5 WPS: 8

*Keen Ice couldn't get up to complete the TRI in the Holy Bull, but I'm giving him another shot in the Risen Star. Will play it safe and put him across the board as he will likely drift up to double-digit odds once again. Going with Gorgeous Bird to WPS in the FOY as it will take a big effort to pull off the upset. 

2015 KY Derby Bankroll: $43.60

Holy Bull Preview

There have been 14 Kentucky Derby point races run so far, but on Saturday the Holy Bull (G2) at Gulfstream Park is the prep race that truly starts to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Derby nominations are on the horizon and the countdown is on until that first Saturday in May.

Holy Bull (G2) 1 1/16m
1/24 Gulfstream Park 4:34 EST

 

1 Frosted 5-2

Improved speed figures in each start. Only lost by a 1/2-length in his stakes debut while running wide the entire race. Been training down at Palm Meadows and is making his first start outside of NY. Should sit just behind the leaders and be ready to pounce turning for home.

2 Keen Ice 6-1

Got up to finish third in the Remsen (G2), but wasn't catching the leaders on that track that day. Son of Curlin cuts back to 1 1 1/16 miles which might be a little short for his liking, but he is working great over the track for trainer Dale Romans. There is more speed lined up in here and he has a shot to run them down on Saturday.

 

8 Upstart 2-1

Multiple Grade 1-placed ridgling will likely be the post time favorite after his rough trip in the BC Juvenile. Should definitely be in the mix on Saturday, but I'm taking a wait and see approach before I jump on his bandwagon.

 

$24 Holy Bull Bankroll

 

$12 Win: 1

$2 TRI BX: 1, 2, 8

*First post since the Breeders' Futurity, so we will get the Derby bankroll going again. Landed on Frosted for the win, as I think he fits perfectly in here. Will put him in a TRI with Keen Ice and Upstart.

2015 KY Derby Bankroll: $67.60

 

Kentucky Derby 20

It's that time... Juveniles graduate to sophomores. 1982 and Apollo are relevant again. Fantasy stables get drafted. Derby dreams become reality. Below is a list of 20 Kentucky Derby hopefuls I could see making the starting gates in May.

Kentucky Derby 20

American Pharaoh (Pioneerof The Nile)
- Had one of the most impressive juvenile performances of the year.

Blofeld (Quality Road)
- Multiple Grade 2 winner, undefeated in three starts on three separate tracks.

Calculator (In Summation)
- Multiple Grade 1-placed, still looking to break maiden. 

Carpe Diem (Giant's Causeway)
- Only loss was a runner-up finish in the BC Juvenile, 10 furlongs won't be an issue.

Conquest Bigluck E (Lookin At Lucky) 
- Looked good in winning first two starts around one turn. 

Dortmund (Big Brown)
- Los Alamitos Futurity winner still without a loss. 

El Kabeir (Scat Daddy)
- KYJC winner, just not sure how far he wants to go. Jerome up next.

Far Right (Notional)
- Broke maiden at Churchill, closed to get in the money last two times out against stakes co.

Frosted (Tapt)
- Remsen runner-up, keeps improving with each start. 

Imperia (Medaglia d'Oro)
- Runner-up by a head in dirt debut in KYJC. 

Keen Ice (Curlin) 
- 3rd in the Remsen, powerful closer. 

Money Multiplier (Lookin At Lucky) 
- Half-brother to Intense Holiday, makes debut Saturday at Aqueduct. 

Mr. Z (Malibu Moon)
- Game competitor, experience won't be a problem for this colt out of Lukas' barn.

Nasa (Smarty Jones)
- PA Nursery winner trying to follow in dad's footsteps, lots of work left to do. Starts Sat. in Jerome.

Ocho Ocho Ocho (Street Sense)
- Perfect in three starts, posted back-to-back triple digit BRIS Speed ratings.

One Lucky Dane (Lookin At Lucky)
- Disappointing stakes debut in BC Juvenile, may bounce back for Baffert as a 3 yo.

Spring Quality (Quality Road)
- Debut winner at Keeneland. PA-bred entered in alw race at Parx on Sunday.

Texas Red (Afleet Alex)
- BC Juvenile winner, odds are against.

Toasting Master (Congrats)
- ALW winner at Churchill, entered in Spectacular Bid S. at Gulfstream Park on Sat. 

Upstart (Flatter)
- Multiple Grade 1-placed, figures have declined in each start since stakes win. 

Fall Stars Weekend

Keeneland kicked off Fall Stars weekend on Friday as the weather in Lexington, Ky was in the midst of a major change. With overcast skies mixed in with rays of sunshine, high winds and spurts of downpours the temperature slowly dropped from a pleasant 72 degrees as the day carried on. Saturday figures to be one of the colder opening weekends in sometime. The rain will be gone but with a high of only 54, it will feel like winter to many as the crowd will witness the Breeders' Futurity being run on dirt for the first time in over 10 years.

The Breeder's Cup is only a month away and this weekend marks the last two points races toward the 2015 Kentucky Derby (the Grey at Woodbine on Sunday is also run for points), before the BC Futurity next month.

Breeders' Futurity S. (G1)
10/4 @ 5:08 EST

11 Keen Ice 15-1

Could not break his maiden at Ellis Park first out which is a concern, but came back at Churchill and stretched out to a mile in his next start to do so. Son of Curlin just may enjoy the longer distance here and will be coming from the back of the pack. If there is a contested pace on the front end, he could pick up the pieces late to pull off the upset at big odds. Has a very nice pedigree which includes Verrazano in his female family. 

5 Carpe Diem 4-1

Lived up to his 1600k price tag by winning at Saratoga in his debut for trainer Todd Pletcher. Tough to gauge how these juveniles will take to two turns for the first time, but being by Giants Causeway it shouldn't be a problem. Very interested in watching this colt run on Saturday, especially considering his half-brother J.B.'s Thunder, who won this race in 2010. 

6 Bold Conquest 9-2

Was coming on strong (100 LP BRIS Speed rating) in the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill last month, but hung late and lost by a neck in a race that produced a slow time at this distance. Trainer Steve Asmussen should have him ready to fire again in here. 

7 Conquest Tsunami 9-2

Ontario-bred broke his maiden in his debut here in April over the Polytrack and then went to Woodbine to win three in a row including a race on the grass. Is undefeated but making first start on dirt and going around two turns. Tough to leave out though. 

$24 Breeders' Futurity Bankroll

$4 WPS: 11

$1 EX BX: 11, 5, 6, 7

*Taking the 11 across the board at long odds and will try to hit the exacta with top four choices to pad the Derby bankroll.

Champagn S. (G1)
10/4 @ 4:29 EST

$12 Champagn Bankroll

$2 EX BX: 1, 4, 6

*Going for the exact with the recent maiden winners.

*Made a silly four-horse exacta bet in the FrontRunner as the heavy favorite won. Hit the exacta but lost money on the $24 ticket I played. 

2015 KY Derby Bankroll: $103.60 

FrontRunner Preview

The FrontRunner on opening weekend at Santa Anita marks the second race on the 2015 Kentucky Derby trail and this is the first Grade 1 race on the table for the two-year-olds that offer up points.

FrontRunner S. (G1)
9/27 @ 6:00 EST

7 American Pharoah 8-5

Threw in a clunker in his racing debut, but came back to break his maiden in impressive fashion (7f in 1:21 2/5) in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). This son of Pioneerof the Nile has given us the first wow performance of the season for the two-year-olds and is definitely the one to catch. If there is any doubt about this juvenile, it has to be that he is making his first start on dirt. 

4 Daddy D T 6-1

Only other stakes winner entered, but that was on turf. Posted a six-furlong bullet work over the track and can't be overlooked. 

2 Lord Nelson 8-1

Bob Baffert's other entry is making his first start in over two months after breaking his maiden in his racing debut. Enters with three solid works over the track and could be the wildcard if he takes to two turns. 

10 Calculator 8-1

Still looking for his first victory, but did run second to American Pharoah in the Del Mar Futurity. This Florida-bred boasts a nice pedigree, which includes Shackleford in his female family and may just need to stretch out to show his talent. 

$24 FrontRunner Bankroll

$2 Ex Bx: 7, 4, 2, 10

*Going to play it safe here with the four-horse exacta and hope the favorite gets beat. 

*Hit the exacta for $114.40 in the Iroquois to kick off the bankroll for the road to the KY Derby. 

2015 KY Derby Bankroll: $114.40

2015 Road to the Kentucky Derby

Another summer has come to an end, which means the changeover to fall starts to stir up talk of the next Kentucky Derby winner. Has the future Derby winner broke his/her maiden or even made their racing debut? Did we witness a potential superstar at Del Mar or the Spa these past couple of months?

This weekend won't answer those questions just yet, but it does officially kick off the 2015 Road to the Kentucky Derby. The Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs on Saturday is the first of 36 stakes races that offer up points to the two-year-olds as they begin their quest toward the 2015 Derby. Over the next eight months these juveniles/sophomores will attempt to accrue as many points as possible to secure a starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Let the dreams and future bets commence...

Iroquois S. (G3)
6/7 Belmont @ 6:52 EST

6 Cleveland Sound 6-1

Finished fourth in the the Saratoga Special (G2) last month but was in behind a wall of horses coming down the stretch. Adds Lasix for the first time and is in position to pull the upset for trainer Graham Motion. 

2 Mr. Z 5-2

Is the class of these juveniles entered in here after finishing runner-up in both the Sanford (G3) and Special. Fired a four-furlong bullet over the track for trainer D. Wayne Lukas and will be the one to beat. 

8 Bold Conquest 4-1

Son of Curlin broke his maiden by a head in his second start and should handle the run around two turns. Might be the better Asmussen colt entered in here. 

5 Lucky Player 5-1

Broke his maiden over the track back in May but was off the board here in the the Bashford Manor (G3). Stretched out to a mile last time but missed by a neck in the Prairie Meadows Juvenile Mile. The 1 1/16-mile distance will not pose a problem but might be a touch slow compared to the competition.


$36 Iroquois Bankroll

$12 W: 6

$2 Ex Bx: 2, 6, 5, 8

* I'll play Cleveland Sound to win and try to catch a piece of the exacta with my top four picks.  

Belmont Stakes Preview

It has been a long 36 years since Affirmed captured the Derby, Preakness and Belmont back in 1978. There have been 12 other horses since then that have entered the Belmont with an opportunity to win all three races, but ultimately came up short. Fans are longing to see another three-year-old accomplish horse racing's toughest test, while some are just hoping to witness a Triple Crown winner for the first time. Come Saturday, California Chrome will attempt a feat that only 11 others have been able to pull off before him. The 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes is all that stands in the way of the California-bred and racing immortality. Will he break the 36-year drought or join the list of 12 others that have failed to reel in that elusive crown since '78?

Spectacular Bid (1979), Pleasant Colony (1981), Alysheba (1987), Sunday Silence (1989), Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), Charismatic (1999), War Emblem (2002), Funny Cide (2003), Smarty Jones (2004), Big Brown (2008) and I'll Have Another (2012).

Belmont Stakes(G1)
6/7 Belmont @ 6:52 EST

5 Ride On Curlin 12-1

Finished 7th in the Derby despite a rough trip in his only race off the board in 11 starts. Ran second to California Chrome by 1 1/2 lengths in the Preakness, but was not catching the winner that day at 1 3/16 miles. The son of Curlin shouldn't have an issue going the added distance and will have another shot at running down the Triple Crown hopeful on Saturday. Still looking for his first stakes win, but last year Palace Malice (Curlin) didn't capture his first stakes until the Belmont. Continues to improve and I like him to pull off the upset.

2 California Chrome 3-5

All eyes and money will be on the Derby and Preakness winner as he tries to do what may be the hardest stunt to pull off in sports. Nothing to knock about this colt as he enters the Belmont on a six-race win streak. Had him on top in the Preakness, but Saturday is a different monster and I predict he will get run down in the stretch. I hope I am wrong, because I would love nothing more than to see my first Triple Crown winner on Saturday. 

1 Medal Count 20-1

I know, he's better on turf/poly and has finished off the board in all three starts over the dirt. That being said, he's by Dynaformer and a horse named Brilliant Speed (Dynaformer), who was better on the grass, finished 3rd in the 2011 Belmont. Got squeezed shortly after the start in the Derby and still made a move turning for home, but had to check in midstretch ending his run. Posted a six-furlong bullet in 1:10 3/5 the other day and enters in here rested. Tough to throw out when running this far. 

9 Wicked Strong 6-1

Broke his maiden over this track and captured the Wood Memorial (G1) two starts back. Lost all hope in the Derby when he stumbled coming out of gate 19. Still managed to get up for fourth-place and also enters in here fresh after skipping the Preakness. His daddy, Hard Spun could do no better than fourth in this race back in 2007. It wouldn't surprise me if he out does his dad on Saturday though.  

8 Commissioner 20-1

Less talented and slower than many of the others entered in here, but if he can stay close to the lead in the beginning he has an outside shot to run in the money. The Belmont is a quirky race and I would not be shocked to see the son of A.P. Indy grind out 12 furlongs. 

*Tabbed Chrome to win the Preakness and had the cold exacta/trifecta. 

139th Preakness

California Chrome proved to all the doubters that he is definitely the best three-year-old of his class at this point in his career, by taking down the 19-horse field in the Kentucky Derby just two short weeks ago. This time around a filly, two Derby contenders and six newcomers will attempt to take down the newest Classic winner. It's a different day and a different track, but California Chrome should continue his reign in Saturday's Preakness and run his consecutive winning streak to six. Three weeks from now, the Belmont may be a different story and a more daunting task than what this weekend poses.

Preakness Stakes
5/17 Pimlico @ 6:18 EST

California Chrome 3-5

Tough to try to bet against in here. Unless there is a major mishap at the break or he gets caught up in the speed duel up front, he will head into the Belmont as the next Triple Crown hopeful. In a class above the rest of the field and don't see any of the other contenders posing a threat. 

Ride On Curlin 10-1

Finished seventh in the Derby despite a difficult ride and not being able to find much running room in the large field. Gets a new rider and with almost half the field size, he should fair better this time out. The 1 3/16-mile distance will not pose a problem for the son of Curlin and like him to be second best on Saturday. 

Social Inclusion 5-1

Gave a nice effort in his graded stakes debut last time out in the Wood (G1). Making just his fourth career start so he figures to continue to improve and also enters in here rested. Posted a bullet work over the track earlier this week and has an outside shot to pull the upset.

*Another Derby and another top pick (Danza) finishes third. Tried to beat the heavy favorite and lost.  

140th Kentucky Derby Preview

One of the most anticipated weeks of the year has finally arrived. Another year and another shot for one horse to run into the history books of the Kentucky Derby. The fastest two minutes in sports, racing's holy grail, call it what you want, on Saturday one three-year-old will garner the bed of roses and get his moment of glory under the Twinspires. The draw is done and the odds are set, so it's time to try and piece together the 140th running of the most prestigious race in the "Sport of Kings".

Derby Hi-5

1) #4 Danza 8-1

One fact that is tough to ignore about this colt is he is the only horse entered that posted triple-digit BRIS Speed and Late Pace figures in his last prep race. Ran twice as a two-year-old last summer before taking off the rest of the year to recover from an injury. After finishing third and getting beat by 7 1/2 lengths in his three-year-old debut in a strong allowance race, he came back with an impressive performance in his first start around two turns in the Arkansas Derby (G1). This lightly-raced colt has raced at four different tracks in four lifetime starts, never finishing out of the money and could be peaking at the right time. Not real high on one individual horse this year, but Danza makes his way to the top of my list in the final days leading up to the Derby. 

2) #14 Intense Holiday 8-1

Son of Harlan's Holiday was always game last year as a two-year-old but could do no better than fourth after breaking his maiden. His sophomore campaign has been a different story though. He has not finished off the board in three starts this year and has improved his BRIS Speed rating with each race. Exits a disappointing stretch run in the Louisiana Derby (G2) but still got up for second and received a triple-digit Speed rating. Put in an impressive work over the track this week and another that has experience running at multiple venues. I look for him to make one powering move turning for home to try and hit the board or even pull off the win.

3) #5 California Chrome 5-2

Has the most starts of any other horse in the Derby and is entering in here on a four-race win streak. Been dominating the West Coast and will be the heavy favorite. Tough to knock a horse with that resume but going 1 1/4 miles is a different task and his pedigree doesn't exactly scream 10 furlongs.  Will include in some exotics but I can't back the odds that he will go off at considering he has never run outside California and the last time a Cal-bred won the Derby was 1962. Dating back to 2000, only three Derby winners did not have a triple-digit BRIS Late Pace rating in their final prep (Super Saver, Mine That Bird and Big Brown). Chrome had a 93 and 97 Late Pace figure in his last two starts.

4) #19 Ride On Curlin 15-1

After breaking his maiden by 7 3/4 lengths at Ellis Park back in July, jockey Calvin Borel told everyone that we would be seeing this colt on the first Saturday in May. Calvin's prediction proved correct and while he hasn't ridden him since a third-place finish in the Southwest (G3) in February, he jumps back aboard on Saturday. Have never been too high on this colt, but his run in the Arkansas Derby made me take notice. Only one of three in here that had a triple-digit BRIS Late Pace figure in his last prep. The son of Curlin has two races over the track and has only finished out of the money once in nine lifetime starts. Could definitely hit the board if Calvin and him can overcome post position 18. 

5) #12 Dance With Fate 20-1

Closer that should benefit from a fast pace upfront. Comes off back-to-back triple-digit Late Pace ratings over all-weather tracks but horses in the past have proven you can carry that form over to the dirt in the Derby with those type of figures. In his only two starts over dirt he finished runner-up in the FrontRunner (G1) at Santa Anita in September and was not a factor in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after getting squeezed back at the start. Tough to discount with his closing speed and the price that will come with him on Derby day.

Don't Count Out...

#20 Wicked Strong 6-1

Winner of the Wood Memorial (G1) is currently sitting just outside my top five. Has not run a run bad race in NY but in his two races outside the state he finished off the board. The outside post might be difficult to overcome but the son of Hard Spun, 2007 Kentucky Derby runner-up, wouldn't surprise if he came charging late to finish in the money. 

#18 Candy Boy 15-1

Has the pedigree to go the distance and will likely be coming on late due to the outside post. Has posted mediocre Speed ratings and would certainly have to run the race of his young career on Saturday to hit the board. 

*The curse of Apollo will live another year as Hoppertunity was scratched two days before the big race. 

Blue Grass Stakes/Arkansas Derby

Only one more weekend to go and we can start piecing the Kentucky Derby puzzle together. The major Derby preps wrap up on Saturday with races at Keeneland and Oaklawn Park. Both preps offer 170 points and a potential starting gate in the Derby. Tapiture is the only three-year-old running this Saturday that has already secured enough points which makes these two races all that more intriguing.

The historical Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland drew a full field of 14 with one also-eligible. Harry's Holiday and Vinceremos both sit on the Derby bubble with 20 points. A first through fourth-place finish in here for either of these two colts would certainly give them enough points. Coastline sits in the 24th position with 13 points, Dance With Fate has 8 points and Casiguapo with 5. Those three will probably need to hit the board if they want to move on to Louisville. All others would need to claim one of the top two spots if they want a shot at the roses in a few weeks.

One could argue that the Blue Grass might just be the most prestigious Derby prep race out there. A total of 23 Derby winners have come from this race, with the last one being Street Sense in 2007 (the first and only to do so over the Keeneland Polytrack). The track is switching back over to dirt this coming summer. So, it shouldn't be long before the next Derby winner emerges from the Blue Grass again to join the likes of Whirlaway, Northern Dancer, Forward Pass, Spectacular Bid, Northern Dancer, Strike The Gold and Thunder Gulch. 

The Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn is represented by Tapiture, who has already claimed a gate with 42 points. Ride On Curlin is currently sitting in 22nd place with 15 points and has to have a top four finish. Strong Mandate enters with 11 points and Commissioner with 10. Both need to hit the board if they want to be racing on the first Saturday in May.

The Lexington Stakes at Keeneland next Saturday is the only other  prep left and that is a hail mary attempt to get into the Derby with only 17 total points given out.

Blue Grass Stakes (G1) 1 1/8 m
4/12 Keeneland 5:45 EDT

13 Medal Count 9-2

After fading in the Fountain of Youth (G2) two starts back, came back in the Transylvania (G3) just last week with a victory over the Polytrack. Will be a tough task coming back within a week but the move he made turning for home in that race was pretty impressive. 

5 Bobby's Kitten 3-1

Has shown promise on the turf and will try to continue that success in his first start over the Polytrack. The always dangerous Kitten's Joy offspring will try to give the Ramsey's their first Blue Grass victory. 

14 Gala Award 5-1

Sold as a yearling for $1550K at the Keeneland September sale and shouldn't have a problem with the 1 1/8 miles. Won the Palm Beach (G3) at Gulfstream last month at this distance and is another that is making his first start over the Poly. 

11 Coastline 8-1

Returns to the track that he broke his maiden at as a two-year-old. Exiting a third-place finish by a neck at this distance in the Spiral (G3) at Turfway Park, which is also a Polytrack.  Likes the surface and tough to write off. 

$24 Blue Grass Bankroll

$0.50 TRI BX: 13, 5, 14, 11

$1 EX BX: 13, 5, 14, 11 

Arkansas Derby (G1) 1 1/8 m

4/12 Oaklawn Park 7:07 EDT

1 Bayern 9-5

The much anticipated stakes debut of Bayern, who Baffert has dubbed as the next Bodemeister. Has not raced since winning an allowance at Santa Anita by 15 lengths in February. If he can get the distance, just might be too fast for the rest of this field. 

6 Commissioner 8-1

Has proven that getting 1 1/8 miles will not be an issue. Flopped in the Fountain of Youth and came back in the Sunland Derby (G3) only to get third after stumbling out of the gate and losing a shoe.  Still unable to throw in the towel on this guy and he should hit the board here. 

3 Tapiture 9-5

Has not finished off the board in six lifetime starts, but the added distance may be stretching it for him. Should give another solid effort and it wouldn't be a surprise is he wins. 

$12 Arkansas Derby Bankroll

$2 TRI BX: 1, 6, 3 

*Hit the TRI in the SA Derby winning some of the bankroll back from last week. Did not have Wicked Strong in the Wood on my ticket. 

April has arrived

The first Friday in April is finally here and so is the opening of the much anticipated Spring Meet at Keeneland located in Lexington, KY.

This will definitely be a unique meet for the historic race course as it will be the last time racing is run over the Polytrack. It was just announced this week that the track will change back over to dirt this summer, marking the end of an eight year run that Keeneland had with the all-weather surface. Hate it or love it, the switch should certainly bring the Bluegrass Stakes back from the dead.

It is hard to imagine that we are only one month away from the Derby and yet there is still no consensus on the Derby favorite. Top Billing and Honor Code were once at the top of lists but have since fallen off due to injury. Cairo Prince was the next to be dubbed the favorite after his performance in the Holy Bull (G2), but he came up short in the Florida Derby (G1) last week.  It looks to be California Chrome's turn following his impresive run in the San Felipe (G2). He will get a chance to cement himself as the leader if he can tackle the Santa Anita Derby on Saturday. Of course there is also the Wood Memorial (G1) being run at Aqueduct. If Samraat were to win again, it would be tough to not put him near the top heading into the Derby undefeated.

Wood Memorial (G1) 1 1/8m
4/5 Aqueduct 5:40 EDT

8 Samraat 7-2

Just keeps on winning. Carried 123 lbs. in the Gotham and that didn't stop him. Hard not to back this colt on his home track. 

11 Social Inclusion 2-1

Blew away Honor Code and an allowance field at Gulfstream Park last month and could be a monster. That being said, I need to wait until he shows he can repeat that performance on another track. Can he wire at Aqueduct going 1 1/8 miles?

4 Harpoon 8-1

Takes one last shot at the Derby and has been training well. Had trouble with his outside post last time and draws near the inside here. Don't count out the Pletcher colt. 

10 Uncle Sigh 5-1 

Continues to play second fiddle to Samraat. Had chances to beat him in the Withers and Gotham but couldn't. Don't see him turning the tables here but figures to be in the mix. 

$30 Wood Bankroll

$6 W: 8

$1 TRI BX: 8, 11, 4, 10 

Santa Anita Derby (G1) 1 1/8m
4/5 Santa Anita 6:30 EDT

3 Hoppertunity

After a difficult trip in the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds he traveled to Oaklawn and won the Rebel (G2) in eventful fashion. This lightly-raced colt is still learning and continues to improve with each start.  If he pulls off the upset, the curse of Apollo will be the talk leading up to the Derby. 

5 California Chrome

One of the more seasoned three-year-olds on the Derby trail comes off a 7 1/4-length win in the San Felipe. The early Derby favorite for many will get a chance to prove himself going 1 1/8 miles.  

6 Candy Boy

Returns after an almost two-month layoff. Has been training well and should be in contention in the end. Will have to hit the board if he wants to make the trip to Louisville. 

$20 SA Derby Bankroll

$8 W: 3

$2 TRI BX: 3, 5, 6

*It has been a rough start to the year in trying to figure out these unpredictable three-year-olds. On to the Wood & SA Derby.