Kentucky Derby 20

It's that time... Juveniles graduate to sophomores. 1982 and Apollo are relevant again. Fantasy stables get drafted. Derby dreams become reality. Below is a list of 20 Kentucky Derby hopefuls I could see making the starting gates in May.

Kentucky Derby 20

American Pharaoh (Pioneerof The Nile)
- Had one of the most impressive juvenile performances of the year.

Blofeld (Quality Road)
- Multiple Grade 2 winner, undefeated in three starts on three separate tracks.

Calculator (In Summation)
- Multiple Grade 1-placed, still looking to break maiden. 

Carpe Diem (Giant's Causeway)
- Only loss was a runner-up finish in the BC Juvenile, 10 furlongs won't be an issue.

Conquest Bigluck E (Lookin At Lucky) 
- Looked good in winning first two starts around one turn. 

Dortmund (Big Brown)
- Los Alamitos Futurity winner still without a loss. 

El Kabeir (Scat Daddy)
- KYJC winner, just not sure how far he wants to go. Jerome up next.

Far Right (Notional)
- Broke maiden at Churchill, closed to get in the money last two times out against stakes co.

Frosted (Tapt)
- Remsen runner-up, keeps improving with each start. 

Imperia (Medaglia d'Oro)
- Runner-up by a head in dirt debut in KYJC. 

Keen Ice (Curlin) 
- 3rd in the Remsen, powerful closer. 

Money Multiplier (Lookin At Lucky) 
- Half-brother to Intense Holiday, makes debut Saturday at Aqueduct. 

Mr. Z (Malibu Moon)
- Game competitor, experience won't be a problem for this colt out of Lukas' barn.

Nasa (Smarty Jones)
- PA Nursery winner trying to follow in dad's footsteps, lots of work left to do. Starts Sat. in Jerome.

Ocho Ocho Ocho (Street Sense)
- Perfect in three starts, posted back-to-back triple digit BRIS Speed ratings.

One Lucky Dane (Lookin At Lucky)
- Disappointing stakes debut in BC Juvenile, may bounce back for Baffert as a 3 yo.

Spring Quality (Quality Road)
- Debut winner at Keeneland. PA-bred entered in alw race at Parx on Sunday.

Texas Red (Afleet Alex)
- BC Juvenile winner, odds are against.

Toasting Master (Congrats)
- ALW winner at Churchill, entered in Spectacular Bid S. at Gulfstream Park on Sat. 

Upstart (Flatter)
- Multiple Grade 1-placed, figures have declined in each start since stakes win. 

Fall Stars Weekend

Keeneland kicked off Fall Stars weekend on Friday as the weather in Lexington, Ky was in the midst of a major change. With overcast skies mixed in with rays of sunshine, high winds and spurts of downpours the temperature slowly dropped from a pleasant 72 degrees as the day carried on. Saturday figures to be one of the colder opening weekends in sometime. The rain will be gone but with a high of only 54, it will feel like winter to many as the crowd will witness the Breeders' Futurity being run on dirt for the first time in over 10 years.

The Breeder's Cup is only a month away and this weekend marks the last two points races toward the 2015 Kentucky Derby (the Grey at Woodbine on Sunday is also run for points), before the BC Futurity next month.

Breeders' Futurity S. (G1)
10/4 @ 5:08 EST

11 Keen Ice 15-1

Could not break his maiden at Ellis Park first out which is a concern, but came back at Churchill and stretched out to a mile in his next start to do so. Son of Curlin just may enjoy the longer distance here and will be coming from the back of the pack. If there is a contested pace on the front end, he could pick up the pieces late to pull off the upset at big odds. Has a very nice pedigree which includes Verrazano in his female family. 

5 Carpe Diem 4-1

Lived up to his 1600k price tag by winning at Saratoga in his debut for trainer Todd Pletcher. Tough to gauge how these juveniles will take to two turns for the first time, but being by Giants Causeway it shouldn't be a problem. Very interested in watching this colt run on Saturday, especially considering his half-brother J.B.'s Thunder, who won this race in 2010. 

6 Bold Conquest 9-2

Was coming on strong (100 LP BRIS Speed rating) in the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill last month, but hung late and lost by a neck in a race that produced a slow time at this distance. Trainer Steve Asmussen should have him ready to fire again in here. 

7 Conquest Tsunami 9-2

Ontario-bred broke his maiden in his debut here in April over the Polytrack and then went to Woodbine to win three in a row including a race on the grass. Is undefeated but making first start on dirt and going around two turns. Tough to leave out though. 

$24 Breeders' Futurity Bankroll

$4 WPS: 11

$1 EX BX: 11, 5, 6, 7

*Taking the 11 across the board at long odds and will try to hit the exacta with top four choices to pad the Derby bankroll.

Champagn S. (G1)
10/4 @ 4:29 EST

$12 Champagn Bankroll

$2 EX BX: 1, 4, 6

*Going for the exact with the recent maiden winners.

*Made a silly four-horse exacta bet in the FrontRunner as the heavy favorite won. Hit the exacta but lost money on the $24 ticket I played. 

2015 KY Derby Bankroll: $103.60 

FrontRunner Preview

The FrontRunner on opening weekend at Santa Anita marks the second race on the 2015 Kentucky Derby trail and this is the first Grade 1 race on the table for the two-year-olds that offer up points.

FrontRunner S. (G1)
9/27 @ 6:00 EST

7 American Pharoah 8-5

Threw in a clunker in his racing debut, but came back to break his maiden in impressive fashion (7f in 1:21 2/5) in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). This son of Pioneerof the Nile has given us the first wow performance of the season for the two-year-olds and is definitely the one to catch. If there is any doubt about this juvenile, it has to be that he is making his first start on dirt. 

4 Daddy D T 6-1

Only other stakes winner entered, but that was on turf. Posted a six-furlong bullet work over the track and can't be overlooked. 

2 Lord Nelson 8-1

Bob Baffert's other entry is making his first start in over two months after breaking his maiden in his racing debut. Enters with three solid works over the track and could be the wildcard if he takes to two turns. 

10 Calculator 8-1

Still looking for his first victory, but did run second to American Pharoah in the Del Mar Futurity. This Florida-bred boasts a nice pedigree, which includes Shackleford in his female family and may just need to stretch out to show his talent. 

$24 FrontRunner Bankroll

$2 Ex Bx: 7, 4, 2, 10

*Going to play it safe here with the four-horse exacta and hope the favorite gets beat. 

*Hit the exacta for $114.40 in the Iroquois to kick off the bankroll for the road to the KY Derby. 

2015 KY Derby Bankroll: $114.40

2015 Road to the Kentucky Derby

Another summer has come to an end, which means the changeover to fall starts to stir up talk of the next Kentucky Derby winner. Has the future Derby winner broke his/her maiden or even made their racing debut? Did we witness a potential superstar at Del Mar or the Spa these past couple of months?

This weekend won't answer those questions just yet, but it does officially kick off the 2015 Road to the Kentucky Derby. The Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs on Saturday is the first of 36 stakes races that offer up points to the two-year-olds as they begin their quest toward the 2015 Derby. Over the next eight months these juveniles/sophomores will attempt to accrue as many points as possible to secure a starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Let the dreams and future bets commence...

Iroquois S. (G3)
6/7 Belmont @ 6:52 EST

6 Cleveland Sound 6-1

Finished fourth in the the Saratoga Special (G2) last month but was in behind a wall of horses coming down the stretch. Adds Lasix for the first time and is in position to pull the upset for trainer Graham Motion. 

2 Mr. Z 5-2

Is the class of these juveniles entered in here after finishing runner-up in both the Sanford (G3) and Special. Fired a four-furlong bullet over the track for trainer D. Wayne Lukas and will be the one to beat. 

8 Bold Conquest 4-1

Son of Curlin broke his maiden by a head in his second start and should handle the run around two turns. Might be the better Asmussen colt entered in here. 

5 Lucky Player 5-1

Broke his maiden over the track back in May but was off the board here in the the Bashford Manor (G3). Stretched out to a mile last time but missed by a neck in the Prairie Meadows Juvenile Mile. The 1 1/16-mile distance will not pose a problem but might be a touch slow compared to the competition.


$36 Iroquois Bankroll

$12 W: 6

$2 Ex Bx: 2, 6, 5, 8

* I'll play Cleveland Sound to win and try to catch a piece of the exacta with my top four picks.