Holy...Holy...Holy Bull

                                                                       Shanghai Bobby

As January comes to a close the eventual 2013 Kentucky Derby winner has broken his maiden at some track somewhere by now. This Saturday marks the deadline for all Triple Crown nominations, which  officially will give everyone a list 250+ three-year-olds to try and pick and choose between who they will attempt to draft (if you participate in a fantasy horse racing league) and/or follow these next few months leading up to the Derby.

This Saturday also marks the running of the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park. A field of 10 was drawn today which is absolutely loaded with talent. Everyone will be attempting to take down undefeated and recently crowned two-year-old Champion Shanghai Bobby as he makes his sophomore debut. Bern Identity returns to take another shot at Mr. Bobby after coming up 4 1/2 lengths short to show in the 7-furlong Hopeful (G2) back on September 3. Since then, Bern went on to win the Jean Laffitt Sakes and was runner-up to Goldencents in the Delta Downs Jackpot (G2) to close out his two-year-old campaign. Frac Daddy, a neck second and Dewey Square, a closing third in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) will certainly be in the mix. That leaves us with the recent Gulfstream Park Derby winner by 6 3/4 lengths, Itsmyluckyday, who posted a 111 BRIS Speed rating. He is certainly the wild card in this one as he steps back into graded company.

10-4-2-1 points are up for grabs and with a win Shanghai Bobby could possibly have enough to secure a spot in the Derby before the "Kentucky Derby Championship Series" even begins. The other nine are looking to be the first to knock off the champ and propel themselves up the points list of Derby hopefuls.

Holy Bull (G3)
1/26 Gulfstream Park 5:05 EST

Three-Year-Olds, 1 1/16m

4 Bern Identity

While Bobby will be tough to take down, Bern certainly has improved since the last time they faced off and he will give him his best shot. Posted sharp workouts leading up to this one and Kelly Breen will have him ready. Has hit the board in all six of his starts and should make it seven on Saturday as he takes down the champ at the wire. 

1 Shanghai Bobby

Looks to make it six in a row. Below par late pace and Speed figures in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile win last out would be only concern about this impressive colt. Will be the one to beat but likely to go off at even-money is tough to back with the talent in here. 

6 Dewey Square

Son of Bernardini looks to improve off his last performance and will be trying to run down the leaders late. If this Romans trainee gets some pace to run after he could be dangerous.

2 Frac Daddy

Tough to knock this colt's short resume. One of the four in here that will be there in the end but unfortunately someone has to claim that lone one point. 

EX/TRI BX: 4,1,6,2

Happy Birthday!

Thanksgiving and Christmas have again passed us by in the blink of an eye. As we approach a new year, many would like this past year to be a distant memory. 2012 had its moments of joy but was overshadowed by a slew of disappointing and ill-timed injuries to the three-year-old class. We are once again left with too many "what if's", but this past year I'll Have Another, albeit briefly, provided the racing world with a glimmer of hope that one day we will again witness a Triple Crown winner.

January 1, the mark of a new year is also a special day for the current two-year-old class since it marks their third birthday. The Derby is only four months away and a new class of three-year-olds are set to chase after the points this year as 2013 ditches the bankroll in favor of the new Kentucky Derby Point System. Over/under at 50 for the minimum amount of points it will take to claim 1 of the 20 starting spots?

Undefeated Shanghai Bobby leads the way with 20 points as there are currently 34 two-year-olds that have a point to their name. More prep races with higher points at stake are right around the corner and there is still no guarantee who will be loading the starting gate come the first Saturday in May. These next four months are going to be exciting to follow, especially with the addition of the new point system put in place. Pay attention because you never know when you might miss the next Champion or better yet a Triple Crown winner.

Mystified Ticket's 2013 Hi-5 Derby Contenders

-Bern Identity 4 pts

Contended in every race he's been throw into. This experienced colt has finished in the money in all six of his starts. His pedigree doesn't carry much weight when it comes to the distance, but showed in his two-year-old campaign that he wants to run. A promising second in the 1 1/16-mile Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) after a not-so-good trip makes him a very interesting colt to watch. Look for him to be in the mix on Derby Day.  NPS: 1/26 1m Holy Bull(G3)
*My two-year-old pick at 50-1 in the Wynn Future Book 12/26/12. 

-Normandy Invasion 4 pts

An impressive runner-up by a nose in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen (G2). He came flying from the back of the field to lose out in a photo. If he posts a similar result his next time out, the son of Tapit will become an instant Derby favorite.  NPS: Not Yet Determined

-Uncaptured  10 pts

Only one blemish on this son of Lion Heart's resume keeps this colt from being undefeated (7-6-0-0). Coming off back-to-back wins over the Churchill track to close out his two-year-old campaign certainly is an added bonus come May 4.  NPS: 2/2 1/16m Sam F. Davis(G3)

-Violence 10 pts

Undefeated in three starts over three different tracks at three separate distances (stretching out each time) gives no reason not to like this colt. One of many in Pletcher's barn this year that looks to make a splash in the Derby.  NPS: 2/23 1/16m Fountain of Youth/Risen Star(G2)

-Shanghai Bobby 20 pts

Undefeated in five starts. Triple digit BRIS Speed ratings in two of those five starts. Soon to be two-year-old champion. All of those accolades but the odds are against him. Street Sense in 2007 is the only horse to win both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby. It was impressive how he fought back in the stretch of the Juvenile and all eyes will be on this colt the first time he stretches out past 1 1/16 miles. The 1 1/4-mile distance is the question mark but will likely have the points to claim a spot in the Derby and try to prove the doubters wrong.  NPS: 1/26 1m Holy Bull(G3)

Other Contenders:
-Overanalyze
-Power Broker
-Dewey Square
-Frac Daddy
-Fury Kapcori
-Goldencents
-Capo Bastone
-Flashback
-Gulfport
-Revolutionary
-Officer Alex

*Picked top four fillies in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Kauai Katie finished 4th showing she didn't have the distance in her and is slated to cut back to a sprint on her birthday (1/1) in the 6f Old Hat (G3). Had Shanghai Bobby pegged in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Power Broker swung extremely wide around the first turn taking himself out of the race but managed to get up for 5th...

Breeders' Cup Weekend

The NBA tipped off their season this week, college basketball exhibitions are underway, but in the horse racing world all attention will be on Santa Anita over the next two days as the top thoroughbreds from around the world load the gates in the Breeders' Cup. With bragging rights, the end of the year eclipse awards and of course plenty of cash up for grabs in all 15 races, Friday and Saturday should provide the audience with some exciting racing.

This year's three-year-old class has been unfortunate to say the least. We are left with Alpha, Nonios and Handsome Mike as the only three-year-olds to represent this class in the Classic this year. Represent is probably all they will do as none of these three are expected to do much against the strong field. Dullahan, who we saw finish third in the Derby and upset the older horses in the Grade 1 Pacific has chosen to try his luck on the turf in the Turf instead of the Classic.

The two-year-olds have been running all summer and fall and now it's time to find out who will be named the early Derby favorite and possibly be crowned two-year-old champ in the Juvenile. Shanghai Bobby makes the trip over from the East Coast with his undefeated resume as he takes on local winner and top two-year-old on the West Coast, Power Broker.

BREEDERS' CUP PICKS

FRIDAY, NOV. 3rd

Sprint 6f 2yo

5 Super Ninety Nine 5-2
3 Merit Man 8-5
4 South Floyd 6-1

*The second running of the Sprint provides plenty of speed this year with the top three picks. Super Ninety Nine is exiting his maiden win over this track last out while Merit Man enters 2-for-2 including a stakes win here.

Juvenile Fillies 1 1/16m

8 Kauai Katie 3-1
2 Executive Privilege 2-1
1 Beholder 5-2

5 Dreaming of Julia 5-2
3 Spring in the Air 15-1

*The girls certainly have a more enticing race than the boys do this year in the two Juvenile races as three of the eight entrants in this one come in with an undefeated record. Kauai Katie is one of the three fillies coming into this race undefeated. If she can carry over her success from NY to CA, she will be the top two-year-old filly who emerges from this star-studded field. Executive Privilege is an amazing five-for-five in her young career. She is exiting a 6 1/4-length win in the Grade 1 Chandelier over this track at 1 1/16 miles and will be the one to beat. Beholder is interesting here after posting a 110 BRIS Speed rating over this track last time out in an 11-length romp at 6f. Dreaming of Julia the last of the undefeated fillies in here shouldn't be overlooked. Spring in the Air will be try to chase the field and could pull off the upset if she takes to the dirt in her first start off Poly and Turf. 

SATURDAY, NOV. 4th

Juvenile 1 1/16

4 Shanghai Bobby 2-1
1 Title Contender 6-1
9 Power Broker 5-2

6 Dynamic Sky 12-1

*Winner of this one will all but crown the two-year-old champ. Look for undefeated Shanghai Bobby to claim top billing of this class. Has posted triple digit BRIS Speed figures in two of his four wins and should have no problem performing at Santa Anita either. Title Contender posted a 100 BRIS Speed rating in breaking his maiden at this track last out going 1 mile and is a serious contender. Power Broker  6 1/2-length winner of the 1 1/16-mile Grade 1 FrontRunner at Santa Anita last out will likely be bet heavy by the local crowd, as he should be. Dynamic Sky is an interesting colt as he makes his first start off of the Polytrack. If he likes the dirt as much as he showed he likes the Poly, don't count out an upset in this one.

*Hit the trifecta in the G1 Champagn but didn't fair so well in G1 Breeders' Futurity as Joha pulled off the upset. Dynamic Sky came in second.

Keeneland Fall Meet

             

It is that time of year again in the Bluegrass when the temperature starts to cool down, the leaves start to change their colors and of course, Keeneland kicks off its Fall meet tomorrow. There are 15 graded stakes races over the next four weekends and nine of those are packed into opening weekend at the historic track, including the $400,000 Breeders Futurity (G1) on Saturday. 

The always unpredictable Breeders' Futurity draws a full field plus some Saturday as the two-year-olds go 1 1/16 miles on the "Polytrack". The field is set for 14 with two also eligibles in another "Win and You're In" race for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile on November 3rd. Todd Pletcher has two of the 14 entries in Charming Kitten and the morning-line favorite Tizracer. Pataky Kidd who is entering off a win in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (G3) is the only graded winner to load the gates in this one. The race is wide open as another colt looks to join the top of this young class heading into the Juvenile. 

Up North another field of two-year-olds load the gates Saturday at Belmont in the $400,000 Champagn (G1) to try and secure a spot in next month's Juvenile. While there are only half of the entries in this race as the Futurity, the talent makes up for lack of entrants in this one. Shanghai Bobby and Bern Identity are the two graded stakes winners in this field while Archwarrior, Goldencents and Micromanage all exit very impressive maiden wins. Only going a mile here over the maintrack but the winner of this one will certainly be one of the favorites for the Juvenile. 

The two-year-olds are taking to the track all over the country by now as they try and vie to be the next Kentucky Derby winner as the "Road to the Kentucky Derby" is officially underway. Power Broker broke his maiden in the FrontRunner (G1) at Santa Anita last weekend and he established himself as one of the early favorites for the Juvenile. 

Breeders' Futurity (G1)
10/6 Keeneland 4:49 EST

Two-Year-Olds, 1 1/16m

Race #8

Tizracer 4-1

Coming off a maiden win at Belmont going a mile in which he won by 10 1/2 lengths and posted a triple speed rating. 

Pataky Kid 12-1

Broke maiden and won Grade 3 races at Arlington over all-weather track last two times out. 

Balance The Books 5-1

Broke maiden in the With Anticipation (G2) on the turf at 1 1/16 miles. First start off turf. 

Dynamic Sky 12-1

Come from behind win to break maiden in stakes race at Woodbine on all-weather track. 

EX/TRI BX: 5,6,11,12

*Good luck with this full-field of unpredictable two-year-olds

Champagn (G1)

10/6 Belmont 4:34 EST

Two-Year-Olds, 1m

Race #8

Shanghai Bobby 3-1
Grade 2 winner, looks to go 4 for 4 and stay undefeated against a very talented field. Considered by many as the top two-year-old right now. 

Goldencents 3-1
Impressive maiden winner in debut posted triple speed rating and won wire-to-wire by 7 1/4 lengths. Going to be tough to catch only going a mile if he repeats last performance. 

Fortify 6-1
Long shot I'm not counting out after second place place finish to Shanghai Bobby in Hopeful (G2). Looks to improve again in third start at longer distance. 

Archwarrior 5-2
Another impressive maiden winner in his debut is trained by Pletcher. 

EX/TRI BX: 2,1,5,4

*Not going to be surprised who wins this with so many impressive maiden winners entered in here.