Belmont Stakes Preview

It has been a long 36 years since Affirmed captured the Derby, Preakness and Belmont back in 1978. There have been 12 other horses since then that have entered the Belmont with an opportunity to win all three races, but ultimately came up short. Fans are longing to see another three-year-old accomplish horse racing's toughest test, while some are just hoping to witness a Triple Crown winner for the first time. Come Saturday, California Chrome will attempt a feat that only 11 others have been able to pull off before him. The 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes is all that stands in the way of the California-bred and racing immortality. Will he break the 36-year drought or join the list of 12 others that have failed to reel in that elusive crown since '78?

Spectacular Bid (1979), Pleasant Colony (1981), Alysheba (1987), Sunday Silence (1989), Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), Charismatic (1999), War Emblem (2002), Funny Cide (2003), Smarty Jones (2004), Big Brown (2008) and I'll Have Another (2012).

Belmont Stakes(G1)
6/7 Belmont @ 6:52 EST

5 Ride On Curlin 12-1

Finished 7th in the Derby despite a rough trip in his only race off the board in 11 starts. Ran second to California Chrome by 1 1/2 lengths in the Preakness, but was not catching the winner that day at 1 3/16 miles. The son of Curlin shouldn't have an issue going the added distance and will have another shot at running down the Triple Crown hopeful on Saturday. Still looking for his first stakes win, but last year Palace Malice (Curlin) didn't capture his first stakes until the Belmont. Continues to improve and I like him to pull off the upset.

2 California Chrome 3-5

All eyes and money will be on the Derby and Preakness winner as he tries to do what may be the hardest stunt to pull off in sports. Nothing to knock about this colt as he enters the Belmont on a six-race win streak. Had him on top in the Preakness, but Saturday is a different monster and I predict he will get run down in the stretch. I hope I am wrong, because I would love nothing more than to see my first Triple Crown winner on Saturday. 

1 Medal Count 20-1

I know, he's better on turf/poly and has finished off the board in all three starts over the dirt. That being said, he's by Dynaformer and a horse named Brilliant Speed (Dynaformer), who was better on the grass, finished 3rd in the 2011 Belmont. Got squeezed shortly after the start in the Derby and still made a move turning for home, but had to check in midstretch ending his run. Posted a six-furlong bullet in 1:10 3/5 the other day and enters in here rested. Tough to throw out when running this far. 

9 Wicked Strong 6-1

Broke his maiden over this track and captured the Wood Memorial (G1) two starts back. Lost all hope in the Derby when he stumbled coming out of gate 19. Still managed to get up for fourth-place and also enters in here fresh after skipping the Preakness. His daddy, Hard Spun could do no better than fourth in this race back in 2007. It wouldn't surprise me if he out does his dad on Saturday though.  

8 Commissioner 20-1

Less talented and slower than many of the others entered in here, but if he can stay close to the lead in the beginning he has an outside shot to run in the money. The Belmont is a quirky race and I would not be shocked to see the son of A.P. Indy grind out 12 furlongs. 

*Tabbed Chrome to win the Preakness and had the cold exacta/trifecta. 

139th Preakness

California Chrome proved to all the doubters that he is definitely the best three-year-old of his class at this point in his career, by taking down the 19-horse field in the Kentucky Derby just two short weeks ago. This time around a filly, two Derby contenders and six newcomers will attempt to take down the newest Classic winner. It's a different day and a different track, but California Chrome should continue his reign in Saturday's Preakness and run his consecutive winning streak to six. Three weeks from now, the Belmont may be a different story and a more daunting task than what this weekend poses.

Preakness Stakes
5/17 Pimlico @ 6:18 EST

California Chrome 3-5

Tough to try to bet against in here. Unless there is a major mishap at the break or he gets caught up in the speed duel up front, he will head into the Belmont as the next Triple Crown hopeful. In a class above the rest of the field and don't see any of the other contenders posing a threat. 

Ride On Curlin 10-1

Finished seventh in the Derby despite a difficult ride and not being able to find much running room in the large field. Gets a new rider and with almost half the field size, he should fair better this time out. The 1 3/16-mile distance will not pose a problem for the son of Curlin and like him to be second best on Saturday. 

Social Inclusion 5-1

Gave a nice effort in his graded stakes debut last time out in the Wood (G1). Making just his fourth career start so he figures to continue to improve and also enters in here rested. Posted a bullet work over the track earlier this week and has an outside shot to pull the upset.

*Another Derby and another top pick (Danza) finishes third. Tried to beat the heavy favorite and lost.  

140th Kentucky Derby Preview

One of the most anticipated weeks of the year has finally arrived. Another year and another shot for one horse to run into the history books of the Kentucky Derby. The fastest two minutes in sports, racing's holy grail, call it what you want, on Saturday one three-year-old will garner the bed of roses and get his moment of glory under the Twinspires. The draw is done and the odds are set, so it's time to try and piece together the 140th running of the most prestigious race in the "Sport of Kings".

Derby Hi-5

1) #4 Danza 8-1

One fact that is tough to ignore about this colt is he is the only horse entered that posted triple-digit BRIS Speed and Late Pace figures in his last prep race. Ran twice as a two-year-old last summer before taking off the rest of the year to recover from an injury. After finishing third and getting beat by 7 1/2 lengths in his three-year-old debut in a strong allowance race, he came back with an impressive performance in his first start around two turns in the Arkansas Derby (G1). This lightly-raced colt has raced at four different tracks in four lifetime starts, never finishing out of the money and could be peaking at the right time. Not real high on one individual horse this year, but Danza makes his way to the top of my list in the final days leading up to the Derby. 

2) #14 Intense Holiday 8-1

Son of Harlan's Holiday was always game last year as a two-year-old but could do no better than fourth after breaking his maiden. His sophomore campaign has been a different story though. He has not finished off the board in three starts this year and has improved his BRIS Speed rating with each race. Exits a disappointing stretch run in the Louisiana Derby (G2) but still got up for second and received a triple-digit Speed rating. Put in an impressive work over the track this week and another that has experience running at multiple venues. I look for him to make one powering move turning for home to try and hit the board or even pull off the win.

3) #5 California Chrome 5-2

Has the most starts of any other horse in the Derby and is entering in here on a four-race win streak. Been dominating the West Coast and will be the heavy favorite. Tough to knock a horse with that resume but going 1 1/4 miles is a different task and his pedigree doesn't exactly scream 10 furlongs.  Will include in some exotics but I can't back the odds that he will go off at considering he has never run outside California and the last time a Cal-bred won the Derby was 1962. Dating back to 2000, only three Derby winners did not have a triple-digit BRIS Late Pace rating in their final prep (Super Saver, Mine That Bird and Big Brown). Chrome had a 93 and 97 Late Pace figure in his last two starts.

4) #19 Ride On Curlin 15-1

After breaking his maiden by 7 3/4 lengths at Ellis Park back in July, jockey Calvin Borel told everyone that we would be seeing this colt on the first Saturday in May. Calvin's prediction proved correct and while he hasn't ridden him since a third-place finish in the Southwest (G3) in February, he jumps back aboard on Saturday. Have never been too high on this colt, but his run in the Arkansas Derby made me take notice. Only one of three in here that had a triple-digit BRIS Late Pace figure in his last prep. The son of Curlin has two races over the track and has only finished out of the money once in nine lifetime starts. Could definitely hit the board if Calvin and him can overcome post position 18. 

5) #12 Dance With Fate 20-1

Closer that should benefit from a fast pace upfront. Comes off back-to-back triple-digit Late Pace ratings over all-weather tracks but horses in the past have proven you can carry that form over to the dirt in the Derby with those type of figures. In his only two starts over dirt he finished runner-up in the FrontRunner (G1) at Santa Anita in September and was not a factor in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after getting squeezed back at the start. Tough to discount with his closing speed and the price that will come with him on Derby day.

Don't Count Out...

#20 Wicked Strong 6-1

Winner of the Wood Memorial (G1) is currently sitting just outside my top five. Has not run a run bad race in NY but in his two races outside the state he finished off the board. The outside post might be difficult to overcome but the son of Hard Spun, 2007 Kentucky Derby runner-up, wouldn't surprise if he came charging late to finish in the money. 

#18 Candy Boy 15-1

Has the pedigree to go the distance and will likely be coming on late due to the outside post. Has posted mediocre Speed ratings and would certainly have to run the race of his young career on Saturday to hit the board. 

*The curse of Apollo will live another year as Hoppertunity was scratched two days before the big race. 

Blue Grass Stakes/Arkansas Derby

Only one more weekend to go and we can start piecing the Kentucky Derby puzzle together. The major Derby preps wrap up on Saturday with races at Keeneland and Oaklawn Park. Both preps offer 170 points and a potential starting gate in the Derby. Tapiture is the only three-year-old running this Saturday that has already secured enough points which makes these two races all that more intriguing.

The historical Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland drew a full field of 14 with one also-eligible. Harry's Holiday and Vinceremos both sit on the Derby bubble with 20 points. A first through fourth-place finish in here for either of these two colts would certainly give them enough points. Coastline sits in the 24th position with 13 points, Dance With Fate has 8 points and Casiguapo with 5. Those three will probably need to hit the board if they want to move on to Louisville. All others would need to claim one of the top two spots if they want a shot at the roses in a few weeks.

One could argue that the Blue Grass might just be the most prestigious Derby prep race out there. A total of 23 Derby winners have come from this race, with the last one being Street Sense in 2007 (the first and only to do so over the Keeneland Polytrack). The track is switching back over to dirt this coming summer. So, it shouldn't be long before the next Derby winner emerges from the Blue Grass again to join the likes of Whirlaway, Northern Dancer, Forward Pass, Spectacular Bid, Northern Dancer, Strike The Gold and Thunder Gulch. 

The Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn is represented by Tapiture, who has already claimed a gate with 42 points. Ride On Curlin is currently sitting in 22nd place with 15 points and has to have a top four finish. Strong Mandate enters with 11 points and Commissioner with 10. Both need to hit the board if they want to be racing on the first Saturday in May.

The Lexington Stakes at Keeneland next Saturday is the only other  prep left and that is a hail mary attempt to get into the Derby with only 17 total points given out.

Blue Grass Stakes (G1) 1 1/8 m
4/12 Keeneland 5:45 EDT

13 Medal Count 9-2

After fading in the Fountain of Youth (G2) two starts back, came back in the Transylvania (G3) just last week with a victory over the Polytrack. Will be a tough task coming back within a week but the move he made turning for home in that race was pretty impressive. 

5 Bobby's Kitten 3-1

Has shown promise on the turf and will try to continue that success in his first start over the Polytrack. The always dangerous Kitten's Joy offspring will try to give the Ramsey's their first Blue Grass victory. 

14 Gala Award 5-1

Sold as a yearling for $1550K at the Keeneland September sale and shouldn't have a problem with the 1 1/8 miles. Won the Palm Beach (G3) at Gulfstream last month at this distance and is another that is making his first start over the Poly. 

11 Coastline 8-1

Returns to the track that he broke his maiden at as a two-year-old. Exiting a third-place finish by a neck at this distance in the Spiral (G3) at Turfway Park, which is also a Polytrack.  Likes the surface and tough to write off. 

$24 Blue Grass Bankroll

$0.50 TRI BX: 13, 5, 14, 11

$1 EX BX: 13, 5, 14, 11 

Arkansas Derby (G1) 1 1/8 m

4/12 Oaklawn Park 7:07 EDT

1 Bayern 9-5

The much anticipated stakes debut of Bayern, who Baffert has dubbed as the next Bodemeister. Has not raced since winning an allowance at Santa Anita by 15 lengths in February. If he can get the distance, just might be too fast for the rest of this field. 

6 Commissioner 8-1

Has proven that getting 1 1/8 miles will not be an issue. Flopped in the Fountain of Youth and came back in the Sunland Derby (G3) only to get third after stumbling out of the gate and losing a shoe.  Still unable to throw in the towel on this guy and he should hit the board here. 

3 Tapiture 9-5

Has not finished off the board in six lifetime starts, but the added distance may be stretching it for him. Should give another solid effort and it wouldn't be a surprise is he wins. 

$12 Arkansas Derby Bankroll

$2 TRI BX: 1, 6, 3 

*Hit the TRI in the SA Derby winning some of the bankroll back from last week. Did not have Wicked Strong in the Wood on my ticket.