145th Belmont Stakes

This time last year the horse racing world was abuzz following I'll Have Another's come from behind wins to take the first two legs of the Triple Crown. He was just one race away from erasing a 30+ year drought that has eluded so many greats of the past. But he would never get the chance as trainer Doug O'Neil shocked the nation on Dan Patrick's radio show the morning before the Belmont announcing that his colt would be unable to run and had to be scratched from the race.

Another year and the drought continues after the highly regarded Orb ran flat in the Preakness following an impressive Derby win in the slop. While the hype is not there this year with the Triple Crown off the line, there are still some quality horses that are slated to run on Saturday and the outcome of the race might have huge implications on the three-year-old picture for the remainder of the year. Right now it is anyone's guess who will emerge as the top three-year-old at the end of the year as we could have three separate winners in each of the three legs of the crown.

The Belmont Stakes could shape up to being the best of the three races with the two classic winners (Orb & Oxbow) going head-to head, a filly (Unlimited Budget) trying her luck against against the boys and almost half the Derby field entered as they attempt to tackle the "Belmont Monster".

Belmont Stakes(G1)
6/8 Belmont @ 6:36 EST

9 Revolutionary 9-2
One that continues to impress despite coming up short in the Derby and taking third. Did not break his maiden until December 28 so he got a late start by Derby standards and is one that is continuing to develop and mature. Skipped the Preakness so he would be fresh coming into the Belmont and by doing so he has history on his side. Its not too late to jump on board this talented son of War Pass because on Saturday he will finally show the racing world how impressive he is. It's crazy to think he doesn't have a Grade 1 win yet, but come tomorrow he can add that to his resume and will go into the record books as a classic winner. Has finished in the money in all seven of his starts so you know he will be there at the end. 

5 Orb 3-1
He broke a lot of hearts two weeks ago in the Preakness but looks to bounce back here. Before his last race he had won five in a row and posted a 111 BRIS Speed rating in the Derby. Returns to New York where he started his racing career and will certainly be a contender on Saturday. Has been working well leading up to the race but you have to wonder how much the Preakness took out of him. 

7 Oxbow 5-1

They call this race the "Test of Champions", well this horse has the heart of a champion. After chasing unprecedented fractions in the Derby to finish sixth he came back two weeks later and wired the field to capture the Preakness. A grinder that figures to be around toward the end but how he does in the race will all depend on the pace scenario. 

14 Golden Soul 10-1

Runner-up in the Derby that spoiled a lot of exotics. His last two races he has posted triple digit BRIS Speed figures. Does he just need the added distance or is this a horse that just benefited from that speed dual in the Derby? Been within a few lengths of the winner his last three races, with the added distance and entering in here off a five-week layoff, it would be silly to dismiss him. 

12 Palace Malice 15-1

The rabbit in the Derby will be running without the blinkers Saturday and look for him to come from just off the pace this time. The son of Curlin should not have a problem with the distance and with the value he provides in here, certainly can't be overlooked. Has put in some impressive works while skipping the Preakness and should be ready to go. 

$100 Belmont Bank...

$40 W: 9 = $40

$1 TRI BX: 9,5,7,14,12 = $60

*Orb failed to fire in the Preakness but did have longshot and winner of the race Oxbow tabbed as the second choice. 

139th Preakness

The Shug McGaughey colt stands above the rest of the three-year-old class after an impressive 2 1/2-length victory in the "Run for the Roses" just two short weeks ago. Since breaking his maiden back in November, Orb continues to find ways to run down his rivals in the stretch as he enters Saturday's Preakness on a five-race win streak. Drawing the inside post as the even-money favorite, he looks to make it six in a row and have an opportunity to do something that hasn't been done in 35 years.

Nine horses will load the gates on Saturday to try and spoil the Triple Crown hopes of this promising son of Malibu Moon. There are three newcomers entering with fresh legs while five will try their luck again after failing to beat Orb in the Derby. Orb will be the one to beat again after going off as the post-time favorite at Churchill but the eight other challengers are not too be overlooked as six of them have won graded races during their three-year-old campaign. The Preakness has the making of another classic race as Orb hasn't run away from the fields in any of his five wins.

Preakness Stakes(G1)
5/18 Pimlico @ 6:20 EST

Orb 1-1

- This guy keeps looking better and better. Could be watching a special three-year-old emerge in front of our eyes and after Saturday will only have the 'Belmont Monster' in between him and racing immortality. If you thought drawing the rail was a concern, he already won the Fountain of Youth from the No. 1 post in a nine-horse field. 

Oxbow 15-1

- Tracked crazy fractions in the Derby and still managed to hold on for sixth. With the shorter distance and the pace expected to not be nearly as fast as the Derby, the race sets up well for him to be there at the end for second. 

Will Take Charge 12-1

- Beat Oxbow at the wire in the Risen Star so if I like Oxbow I have to throw Lucas' other colt in the exotics. Was closing in the Derby but had to virtually stop when Verrazano slowed right in front of him. Will be coming on at the end to try and hit the board.

Govenor Charlie 12-1

- Only making his fourth start but was the promising winner of the Sunland Derby (G3). A foot issue kept him out of the Derby but posted a sharp six-furlong work earlier in the week. One that could fill out some exotics. 

*Had three of the top four pegged in the Derby. Revolutionary (3rd), Normandy Invasion (4th) and Orb (1st). Golden Soul spoiled the exotics, while top pick Revolutionary finished third. 

139th Kentucky Derby Final Rankings

Mystified Ticket's Derby Hi-5(Final Rankings)

1) #3 Revolutionary 10-1

- This guy jumped to the top of my list after an improbable run from near last at the top of the stretch to win the Withers (G3) in his three-year-old debut back in February. Look for this colt to live up to his name on Saturday, give Borel his fourth winning Derby mount and Pletcher his second Derby win. 

2) #5 Normandy Invasion 12-1

-  Always in the mix at the end and figures to be there again Saturday as he will be charging late. Lost out by a total of one-length in the Remsen (G2) and Wood (G1) both at a 1 1/8 miles. Is the added distance what this colt needs to run them down at the wire for his first stakes score?

3) #16 Orb 7-2

- Tough to bet against this favorite out of Shug McGaughey's barn with the red-hot Joel Rosario aboard. Enters Derby on a four-race win streak. 

4) #10 Palace Malace 20-1

- The of son Curlin is the sleeper not too many are talking about. Has hit the board in all but one of his six starts and should have no problem with the distance. Has yet to show his full potential, gets blinkers for the first time and is one that can't be overlooked. Keep in mind there is a chance of rain in Louisville on Saturday and he posted a triple digit BRIS Speed rating over a sloppy track in his three-year-old debut. 

5)  #14 Verrazano 4-1

- Tries to become only the eighth horse to leave the Derby undefeated and also has the curse of Apollo hanging over his head if you believe in that stuff. Enters race 4 for 4 and posted triple digit BRIS Speed ratings twice. Tough to dismiss. 

Don't Count Out...

#2 Oxbow 30-1

- No excuses for wide trips here. Has an inside post and will look to be right up on the lead. This guy supposedly can run all day and with a good break from the gate he might be there in the end to fill out some exotics. 

#12 Itsmyluckyday 15-1
- Posted top BRIS Speed rating of any of the three-year-olds. Must be able to rebound from Florida Derby (G1) loss, take to the Churchill track and get the distance. 

#8 Goldencents 5-1

- Winner of the Santa Anita Derby must control his speed if he wants any chance to be there at the end. Looms dangerous if you think he can go 1 1/4 mile and build off his last win. 

#9 Overanalyze 15-1

- Winner of the Arkansas Derby is flying under the radar but must improve figures off his last two performances if he is to compete with this group. 

#18 Frac Daddy 50-1

- Broke his maiden by 9 3/4 lengths and lost out by a neck in the KY Jockey Club (G2) in his two starts over the Churchill track. 

139th Kentucky Derby Preview

Kentucky Derby

As Keeneland closes their gates to the Spring Meet, a track just an hour up the road prepares to open theirs up. It is always a down weekend in Lexington come the the end of April but fans can take solace that the Kentucky Derby is only week away. It sometimes seems like Derby Day will never come but it aways does just as October will be here before you know it for Keeneland's Fall Meet.

Well, the Derby preps are all but wrapped up, many of the horses are already on Churchill Downs' grounds and that first Saturday in May has almost arrived which means it is time to focus in on which of these three-year-olds are the legitimate contenders in this years 139th running of the Kentucky Derby.

Mystified Ticket's Derby Hi-5

1) Revolutionary

-Watching him come from near last at the top of the stretch to win the Withers got me on board. Followed up that performance with another come from behind win in the Louisiana Derby (G1) and posted a 105 BRIS Speed rating in the process. Has the pedigree to go the distance and definitely has shown he has the talent despite his goofy nature in the races. Tends to break slowly from the gate and seems to always find traffic but has emerged at the end despite these question marks. With Calvin Borel aboard trying to nab his fourth Derby in seven years, look for him to guide this immature but promising colt to stardom next Saturday. 

2) Normandy Invasion

-Just missed by a nose in the Remsen (G2), 1 3/4 lengths in the Risen Star (G2) and 3/4 lengths in the Wood Memorial (G1). Comes closing fast as he just missed catching the undefeated Verrazano in the Wood last time out. Might be due as he is still looking for his first stakes win. While history is against him since you have to go all the way back to November 2 to find his first and only win don't write him off your tix because he will be there in the end. 

3) Orb

-Enters the Derby on a four-race win streak which includes wins over Revolutionary in his maiden win to close out his two-year-old campaign, the talented Violence (recently injured) in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Itsmyluckyday (posted the top speed rating of any three-year-old so far) in the Florida Derby (G1). Is trained by the popular Shug McGaughey and has the red-hot jockey Joel Rosario aboard. Both are looking for their first Derby win and this colt is one that could take them to the winners circle under the twinspires. 

4) Verrazano

-Undefeated in four career starts will be the morning-line favorite. Took an optional claimer by 16 1/4 lengths in his second start, won both the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and Wood Memorial (G1) along the way. But just like Bodemeister last year, he faces the curse of Apollo (1982) and looks to erase the 130 plus years of history as he tries to become only the second horse to win the Derby without a start as a two-year-old. Don't let history deter you from this guy as we saw last year that I'll Have Another made headlines by becoming the first Derby winner to break from the 19TH post. Figures to be in the mix and could easily be better than the rest but the classic distance might just be out of his reach and I see him getting beat at the wire. 

5) Oxbow

-Longshot that many have already written off after that abysmal performance in the Arkansas Derby (G1) even though he broke last and got dirt thrown in his face. Mark through that race and you have a Lukas horse who has been game in his starts against graded company as a three-year-old. Despite extremely wide trips in the Risen Star (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1) he only got caught at the wire by a half-length and a head respectively. His only decent post draw came in the LeCome (G3) where he put away the field by an astounding 11 1/2 lengths. Has an ace up his sleeve in that he is only one of two in the Derby field that has a win over the Churchill Downs track. All eyes will be on this horse on Wednesday come the post draw. If he gets a decent post position include him in your exotics because he is bred to run all day, will be up on the lead, if not the lead and will be there in the end with a good price on his head. 

Don't Count Out...

Goldencents

-Will certainly be one of the favorites after his win in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Enters the Derby with the highest last race BRIS Speed rating and is one that will contend if he can control his speed. Questions surround this colt about who he has beaten and will he be able to go the 1 1/4-mile distance. 

Overanalyze 

-Winner of the Arkansas Derby (G1) that is flying under the radar entering the Derby. Posted a 104 BRIS Speed rating as winner of the Remsen (G1) back in November. Did not run as a three-year-old until March where he finished fifth in the Gotham (G3). With only two starts in 2013 he could be peaking at right time but needs to return to his Remsen form to have a shot because he posted speed figures that are well below par in his last two races. 

Palace Malace

-Had to add this son of Curlin who looks more and more intriguing and will jump in final rankings if he draws well on Wednesday. Has hit the board in five of six starts and you can throw out his Louisiana Derby due to the pitiful trip he had to endure. Gets blinkers for the first time and might just be a sleeper in the race. 

Itsmyluckyday

-Posted the top speed figure (111) of any of the three-year-olds this year but he got run down in the stretch of the Florida Derby (G1) by Orb. Like many of the others entered in the Derby, there are questions if he will be able to get the distance. 

Java's War

-Winner of the Bluegrass Stakes (G1) likes to come from the back of the pack. His preference is the Polytrack as he finished sixth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in his only start over the Churchill track but Dullahan (winner of last year's BG) hit the the board in the Derby last year. His speed figures are also well below par entering the Derby and his slow break from the gate could be his undoing in a field this large.

*Govenor Charlie 

-Lightly-raced son of Midnight Lute exits off an impressive five-length victory in the Sunland Derby (G3). Like Verrazano, will have to overcome history and the curse of Apollo since he did not run as a two-year-old. Currently the lone Baffert horse entered in the Derby will certainly be a wildcard. Did not have any competition in the Sunland but if he continues to improve in his fourth start who knows what will happen. Dealing with a foot issue so will be interesting to see how he works out leading up to the race.

*Not likely to run. Looks like Baffert might be without a Derby horse this year

-Check back at the end of the week to see my final Derby rankings after the post position draw and morning-line odds are set....